Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

I think all of Ukraine's supporters (possibly excepting China!) would be fine with any peace deal Ukraine wanted to accept, even if Ukraine didn't want to join NATO. Wars are costly, even wars fought by someone else, and economies aren't doing so great right now.

(I possibly except China, somewhat jokingly since they're still selling ammo to Ukraine, because China has some stake in continuing the war to destabilize Russia even further for taking control of opportunistic parts of it, and for absorbing economic influence in Russia. Also they'd really like a Black Sea port control for their failing Belt and Road Initiative, and the current situation might not give them that.)

[Jarhead0331]

I think all of Ukraine's supporters (possibly excepting China!) would be fine with any peace deal Ukraine wanted to accept, even if Ukraine didn't want to join NATO. Wars are costly, even wars fought by someone else, and economies aren't doing so great right now.

(I possibly except China, somewhat jokingly since they're still selling ammo to Ukraine, because China has some stake in continuing the war to destabilize Russia even further for taking control of opportunistic parts of it, and for absorbing economic influence in Russia. Also they'd really like a Black Sea port control for their failing Belt and Road Initiative, and the current situation might not give them that.)

I strongly disagree with this, but to discuss it in detail would distract from the topic and delve too deeply into politics. Suffice it to say, while war is costly to some, it rakes in billions for others and those others exert tremendous political control in the United States and other NATO states. Beyond the obvious commercial interests, there are also other economically motivated forces that would like to see the conflict prolonged in order to eliminate Russia as a competitor for global markets.

[JasonPratt]

That's fair. Though keep in mind that South Korea wasn't exactly bad for war profiteering for decades at a reasonable rate. The people actually paying the bills don't have the real cash they used to, so there are pressures at the top against rapid combat expansion again. CAREFUL combat expansion, sure: for that they need Ukraine at a wary peace.

[JasonPratt]

I'm not sure it matters anyway; Ukraine has been very punchy about recovering their lost territory and intending to keep at it this time until Russia crumbles in its ability to hold ground.

Ukraine has managed to soft-kill the Russian stock market anyway!

[Crossroads]

Suffice it to say, while war is costly to some, it rakes in billions for others

And vice versa, I guess. There are those who were happy to pocket all the peace dividend they could, neglect their own armed forces and use the money elsewhere, and, vitally, always appease to Putin as there was cheap Russian energy available that mattered most. Putin and Russia have blatantly played their games for almost two decades now, with no one willing to put hard pressure against that until now.

[Skoop]

Suffice it to say, while war is costly to some, it rakes in billions for others

And vice versa, I guess. There are those who were happy to pocket all the peace dividend they could, neglect their own armed forces and use the money elsewhere, and, vitally, always appease to Putin as there was cheap Russian energy available that mattered most. Putin and Russia have blatantly played their games for almost two decades now, with no one willing to put hard pressure against that until now.

And that to me was the number one goal of the whole war.  We helped Ukraine make Putin pay for 20 years of bullying.
Had we done this in 1938 Czechoslovakia, we might have averted 1939 Poland.

Pretty sure the military industrial complex made a killing in WWII, but we celebrate that versus those same corporations getting rich off Ukraine.

I get it though, the notion of run away military industrial complex should be checked and balanced.  In this theme, I got a creepy vibe from the seen in the fallout series recently, where corporations selling the vault tech orchestrated the nuclear war to sell more vaults.  But that's fiction, and Ukraine dealing with a gangster nation like Russia is reality.

[Jarhead0331]

Suffice it to say, while war is costly to some, it rakes in billions for others

And vice versa, I guess. There are those who were happy to pocket all the peace dividend they could, neglect their own armed forces and use the money elsewhere, and, vitally, always appease to Putin as there was cheap Russian energy available that mattered most. Putin and Russia have blatantly played their games for almost two decades now, with no one willing to put hard pressure against that until now.

And that to me was the number one goal of the whole war.  We helped Ukraine make Putin pay for 20 years of bullying.
Had we done this in 1938 Czechoslovakia, we might have averted 1939 Poland.

Pretty sure the military industrial complex made a killing in WWII, but we celebrate that versus those same corporations getting rich off Ukraine.

I get it though, the notion of run away military industrial complex should be checked and balanced.  In this theme, I got a creepy vibe from the seen in the fallout series recently, where corporations selling the vault tech orchestrated the nuclear war to sell more vaults.  But that's fiction, and Ukraine dealing with a gangster nation like Russia is reality.

Too often I see people drawing an equivalency between World War II and the War in Ukraine. This is done mostly by hawks who want to argue that the War in Ukraine is an existential struggle against evil, which if not engaged will lead to catastrophic consequences for America and the world. This is a mistake as it turns justified moral outrage into hypocritical moral hysteria which then very easily can become an obstacle to a peace settlement that may be in the best interests of ourselves and the victims of the war.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/ukraines-war-is-like-world-war-i-not-world-war-ii/

[Gusington]

^Great article, with many great quotes:

'Today, no serious historians—or educated people in general—would argue that this conflict was necessary and in the real interests of any of the participants, nor that continuing the war in order to gain complete victory was necessary or wise, nor that the Versailles Settlement that ended the war turned out well for the victors, let alone the defeated. From the perspective of a century later, it seems obvious that in adopting the policies that led to war and persisting in its continuation, all the ruling elites of Europe fundamentally and disastrously misjudged the true interests of their countries.'

'But stupidity, however extreme, is not a war crime.'

'But will historians of the future attribute sole responsibility to Russia, and exonerate the U.S. and NATO member governments of all blame for trying to integrate Ukraine with the West, and thus threatening what both Russians and a long row of Western experts (including the present head of the CIA, William Burns) warned were seen in Moscow as vital Russian interests?'

'The fact that a war is illegal does not make everything the aggressor does a war crime.'

[Jarhead0331]

Pretty interesting interview with a Polish "volunteer" who has fought in Ukraine for over 14-months.

[Crossroads]

^Great article, with many great quotes:

'Today, no serious historians—or educated people in general—would argue that this conflict was necessary and in the real interests of any of the participants, nor that continuing the war in order to gain complete victory was necessary or wise, nor that the Versailles Settlement that ended the war turned out well for the victors, let alone the defeated. From the perspective of a century later, it seems obvious that in adopting the policies that led to war and persisting in its continuation, all the ruling elites of Europe fundamentally and disastrously misjudged the true interests of their countries.'

'But stupidity, however extreme, is not a war crime.'

'But will historians of the future attribute sole responsibility to Russia, and exonerate the U.S. and NATO member governments of all blame for trying to integrate Ukraine with the West, and thus threatening what both Russians and a long row of Western experts (including the present head of the CIA, William Burns) warned were seen in Moscow as vital Russian interests?'

'The fact that a war is illegal does not make everything the aggressor does a war crime.'

I would opinion those very arguments and a few others there as well make that article, well, let us say meeting Darth Putin's Tankie Guidelines rather spot on.

For instance, prior to Russian invasion, Zelensky had already committed for Ukraine not joining NATO. Regarding closer relationships towards EU, without asking Kremlin, I guess that justifies a war then.

That comment on excusing for Russian warcrimes is rather interesting as well.

[Sir Slash]

I watch Willie OAM's videos almost every day. He makes many great points and plays it right down the middle despite being labeled Pro-This and Anti-That.

[Skoop]

Suffice it to say, while war is costly to some, it rakes in billions for others

And vice versa, I guess. There are those who were happy to pocket all the peace dividend they could, neglect their own armed forces and use the money elsewhere, and, vitally, always appease to Putin as there was cheap Russian energy available that mattered most. Putin and Russia have blatantly played their games for almost two decades now, with no one willing to put hard pressure against that until now.

And that to me was the number one goal of the whole war.  We helped Ukraine make Putin pay for 20 years of bullying.
Had we done this in 1938 Czechoslovakia, we might have averted 1939 Poland.

Pretty sure the military industrial complex made a killing in WWII, but we celebrate that versus those same corporations getting rich off Ukraine.

I get it though, the notion of run away military industrial complex should be checked and balanced.  In this theme, I got a creepy vibe from the seen in the fallout series recently, where corporations selling the vault tech orchestrated the nuclear war to sell more vaults.  But that's fiction, and Ukraine dealing with a gangster nation like Russia is reality.

Too often I see people drawing an equivalency between World War II and the War in Ukraine. This is done mostly by hawks who want to argue that the War in Ukraine is an existential struggle against evil, which if not engaged will lead to catastrophic consequences for America and the world. This is a mistake as it turns justified moral outrage into hypocritical moral hysteria which then very easily can become an obstacle to a peace settlement that may be in the best interests of ourselves and the victims of the war.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/ukraines-war-is-like-world-war-i-not-world-war-ii/

I'm not an obstacle for peace at all.  I think the message has been sent, the damage has been done to Russia and now is the time for peace.  I'm not interested in sacrificing Ukraine to further damage Russia.  I think both sides should face reality and compromise for peace.

I think the beginning phase and 2014 was definitely the appeasement phase of world war 2 and even shades of the Spanish civil war.  The middle part and state were in today is the the World War One run away escalation like the guns of august 1914.  I think both lessons are relevant.

Just like Ukraine,locking the Germans into a costly regional war in 1938 could definitely had made them think twice about Poland in 1939.  Something should have been done then rather than appeasement, just like something should have been done in 2014 but we got appeasement with war in 2022.

[Jarhead0331]

I'm not an obstacle for peace at all. 

You, Sir, are very clearly the obstacle for peace, as this photo abundantly proves. I pulled this image from CNN, so we know it is accurate.

[Skoop]

Nice, photo shop skillz, if that's all you got.  I would have expected a more intelligent response.  I guess we could go  tit for tat and I could photo shop your avatar onto Neville Chaimberlain's head or victor orban's head or Tucker Carlson's head but why bother, not even worth my time.

[Jarhead0331]

Nice, photo shop skillz, if that's all you got.  I would have expected a more intelligent response.  I guess we could go  tit for tat and I could photo shop your avatar onto Neville Chaimberlain's head or victor orban's head or Tucker Carlson's head but why bother, not even worth my time.

Dude, I was trying to be funny. What is it with you people?