Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread

[Tripoli]

My proposal is definitely for option 2, board the legions on the fleets and send everything under Scipio, who voids the war's D/S results for the naval battle and the land battle. We should have enough surplus fleets that we can lose a few without taking any legion losses before they even land.

Regarding Consuls, I suggest:

Scipio for Dictator.
A Militarist MoH, either Julius or Manlius.
A Plutocrat Rome Consul.
A Populist Field Consul.
A Conservative Censor (who agrees not to prosecute)
And Pontifex back to the Progressives.

That way every faction gets something.

While I appreciate the sentiment of giving everybody something, I believe the important objective this turn is to win the first Punic war, before the 2nd becomes active.  Remember, we have a -2 bad omen, and Hamilcar leading the Carthiginians.  We also may take losses in the naval battle.  Because of this, it is best, IMHO, to have a Dictator/MoH combination win the naval battle, and have a militarist field counsel win the land battle.  Personally, I'm not too excited about having a militarist as either MoH or Field Counsel, due to the very real possibility of them dying in battle against the Carthaginians.   Such a loss would be a grievous blow to my faction.  However, to keep the Punic War from metastasizing, I'm willing to take the risk.  Here's my logic: If we use the Dictator/MoH combination for both the naval and land combat we 1) risk losing legions in the naval fight, and thereby reduce our chances in the land battle and 2) Give the dictator a "double tap" of popularity and influence.  That could be bad for the remaining senators, and the Republic.  Therefore, I believe it is best for us to maintain a balance of political power and divide up the command: A Dictator/MoH for the naval component and a Field Counsel for the land component.  Because of this, and the the necessity of winning the land combat, a militarist commander for the land component is the best choice.  As I have done in the past, I'm willing to forgo having legions swearing loyalty to me, in the event I am victorious, to put a check on the militarist faction becoming a threat to the Republic.  If someone believes they are being left out of this arrangement, we could offer them the next captured province (likely Sicily).

[JasonPratt]

No word from AzTank yet, but I'll wait until tomorrow after work to proceed. Y'all have some politicking to chew over anyway (publicly and perhaps behind the scenes) in preparation for this Senate Phase.

[JasonPratt]

"Progress is being occurred" today (to borrow one of my former pupil's favorite Chinglish sayings). I expect to be able to process into the Senate Phase this afternoon.

[JasonPratt]

TURN TWELVE -- POPULATION PHASE
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The resolution of the Sulpy Seduction won’t affect the Population Phase, or vice versa, so I’ll continue on while some final political matters are being political’d.

Putting Rome in order! All senators with PontMax and above get Major Suspicion. (The ex-PontMax Plautius got one after losing his office from Evil Omens.)

Next Turn, the 2nd Punic War will arrive in the Roman heartlands and threaten to destroy the Tax Concessions during this Phase. But not yet.

Each family in the Curia normally rolls now to see if they can promote a scion back to the Senate. However, with two Evil Omens deducting 2 from the dice roll, it would be impossible to score the 5 or 6 to succeed.

Same goes for Philip the Vth: Evil Omens are great for his natural health, making him impervious to a natural death!

Evil Omens do not directly increase Unrest. But +1 for the Unprosecuted 1st Punic War, and +1 for the ongoing food shortage (drought effect) caused by the Inactive 1st Illyrian War.

The Dictator Paullus Macedonicus of the Conservatives will give the State of the Republic Speech, the result of which will be his Popularity of 5; -2 Unrest; -2 Evil Omens (they do affect the die roll); and a 3d6 roll of 1+2+6 = 13. A solid effort, no change. (It’s much easier for the Presiding Magistrate to make Unrest worse with his speech, than to reduce it! His unmodified roll would have been another -2 to Unrest!)

Technically this would open the Senate Phase, but I’ve now gone as far as I can without resolving the Sulpy persuasion.

The Frog, incidentally, confirms that he’ll still spend his cash on the level-3 Games, so those results stand.

[JasonPratt]

Having been given my final instructions by various parties, sort of, I’ll proceed along.

Tripoli sacrifices all 8 of the Militarist Faction cash on a counterbribe.

Scipio still has 22 cash in reserve (not 23, he had to add an extra initial Talent retroactively to reach the maximum 9 chance -- my fault not his). But AzTank’s adds 22 to the bribe from Conservative Faction cash, down from 48 to 26.

Even if Scipio added a final bribe of 22, the math would look like this:

Evil Omen: -1 (the first one)
Sulpy Loyalty (to himself): -8
Sulpy original cash: -28
Sulpy counterbribes: -8 -22
Scipio Influence: +23
Scipio Ora: +5
Scipio initial bribe: +18 (this part has already been sacrificed and cannot be taken back)
Scipio theoretical final bribe: +22

Final 2d6 target total not to exceed: 1. And 2d6 will necessarily total at least 2.

Consequently there’s no reason for Scipio to add any more of his cash: his Persuasion attempt is going to automatically fail now regardless. (Although if I.I. insists on giving it to Sulpicius anyway, I’ll process that for him!)

Sulpy’s new personal cash: 28 starting + 18 bribes +8 +22 counterbribes = Great Scotia, SEVENTY-SIX TALANTONS!

No wonder he’s smirking. One less-than-average-talented senator (and his family) has accrued enough cash, DOING LITERALLY NOTHING, to rival the treasury of the whole Republic.

There’s a moral here somewhere.

Let’s start the Senate before Sulpy declares war on us.



...um, I've had to stay up late the past few nights, so I'm going to wait to post mat snapshots until tomorrow afternoon. But y'all know enough to start working out plans, which indeed you've already started doing.

Remember, Dictator Paullus Macedonicus (AzTank's Statesman) of the Conservatives, starts as Presiding Magistrate, so unless someone jumps in with a Tribune he'll have to make the Proposal for Consuls (which must come first).

[Erax]

We only have one war to fight, so the consuls' stats aren't that important. I suggest a Plutocrat Rome Consul because we may have unexpected expenses next turn, and the Field Consul could be one of the many lesser Senators.

[JasonPratt]

One strategic point worth considering, which would be related to at least one Consul and maybe a Dictator/MoH combo again, is whether to try punching through to a land battle this turn.

The crux is this: if you don't get rid of the 1st Punic War this turn, its base strengths (both land and sea) are going to double next turn. That's at best -- we don't know where Hannibal is, but he has to be coming, and he'll stack with Hamilcar. (Their bonuses will be added to the multiplied figures, not multiplied themselves, but still. Also Han's D/S results will be factored into the others!) Possibly worse, is that we don't know when the 3rd Punic War will appear, Middle or Late Era, but if it's Middle Era then there's a real if small chance that it will go Immanent next Turn! (And an increasing chance each Turn afterward.)

To have even a chance of getting rid of the 1st Punic War this Turn, two things must happen: the Naval War must be Defeated (once Defeated, it's gone for good); and the Land War must be attacked this Turn after winning the Naval War.

Assuming the Players agree that you must at least try to shoot against the Land War this Turn, there are only two ways to try. And this is where the question of which senators will be which Consuls and/or Dictator-and-MoH comes in. (And where any such force will be applied, to land or to sea.)

1.) A Naval Force is Deployed under a Consul or under a Dictator/MoH. Then a Land Force is Deployed to the same War under a different Consul or Dictator/MoH. The Land Force is safe from naval casualties, but will not fight with the benefits of the Naval Commander (nor the Naval Force fight with the benefits of the Land Commander.) If the Naval Force punches through, and if they have at least 10 Fleets remaining (the necessary Support level for the Land War), then the Land Force attacks the War subsequently. This is similar to the Senate Deploying two Forces under two Commanders to attack the same War, which they then do in sequence with their separate forces. (The difference in this case, is that two Victories, Naval and Land, and thus two Victorious Commanders are possible.)

2.) A Naval Force carrying a Land Force is Deployed under a Consul or under a Dictator/MoH. The Legions risk taking casualties in the Navy fight, but if the Navy punches through (and if enough Naval Support remains), then the same Commander (not a different one) can lend his skills to the Land Force in an immediate land attack against the War. Theoretically he could win two Victories (and two Pop and Inf benefits) this way, too!

There are pros and cons either way (including politically!), and I will implement either general plan. But they could require distinct Consul and possibly Dictator/MoH picks.

[Tripoli]

One strategic point worth considering, which would be related to at least one Consul and maybe a Dictator/MoH combo again, is whether to try punching through to a land battle this turn.

The crux is this: if you don't get rid of the 1st Punic War this turn, its base strengths (both land and sea) are going to double next turn. That's at best -- we don't know where Hannibal is, but he has to be coming, and he'll stack with Hamilcar. (Their bonuses will be added to the multiplied figures, not multiplied themselves, but still. Also Han's D/S results will be factored into the others!) Possibly worse, is that we don't know when the 3rd Punic War will appear, Middle or Late Era, but if it's Middle Era then there's a real if small chance that it will go Immanent next Turn! (And an increasing chance each Turn afterward.)

To have even a chance of getting rid of the 1st Punic War this Turn, two things must happen: the Naval War must be Defeated (once Defeated, it's gone for good); and the Land War must be attacked this Turn after winning the Naval War.

Assuming the Players agree that you must at least try to shoot against the Land War this Turn, there are only two ways to try. And this is where the question of which senators will be which Consuls and/or Dictator-and-MoH comes in. (And where any such force will be applied, to land or to sea.)

1.) A Naval Force is Deployed under a Consul or under a Dictator/MoH. Then a Land Force is Deployed to the same War under a Consul or under a Dictator/MoH. The Land Force is safe from naval casualties, but will not fight with the benefits of the Naval Commander (nor the Naval Force fight with the benefits of the Land Commander.) If the Naval Force punches through, and if they have at least 10 Fleets remaining (the necessary Support level for the Land War), then the Land Force attacks the War subsequently. This is similar to the Senate Deploying two Forces under two Commanders to attack the same War, which they then do in sequence with their separate forces. (The difference in this case, is that two Victories, Naval and Land, and thus two Victorious Commanders are possible.)

2.) A Naval Force carrying a Land Force is Deployed under a Consul or under a Dictator/MoH. The Legions risk taking casualties in the Navy fight, but if the Navy punches through (and if enough Naval Support remains), then the same Commander (not a different one) can lend his skills to the Land Force in an immediate land attack against the War. Theoretically he could win two Victories (and two Pop and Inf benefits) this way, too!

There are pros and cons either way (including politically!), and I will implement either general plan. But they could require distinct Consul and possibly Dictator/MoH picks.

I'm thinking that we need to do something like we did last turn-have a militarist be the MoH to Scipo, and have the other one be a field counsel.  I can see having a Plutocrat as Roman counsel would be safe-I don't think we are going to get 4 wars now, so Bankruptcy is a larger danger.   If players are worried about the militarists having too many loyal legions, I promise to disband any loyal legion I obtain after this turn, or the 2nd Punic war is won, whatever the Senate decides. 

[Erax]

My proposal is definitely for option 2, board the legions on the fleets and send everything under Scipio, who voids the war's D/S results for the naval battle and the land battle. We should have enough surplus fleets that we can lose a few without taking any legion losses before they even land.

Regarding Consuls, I suggest:

Scipio for Dictator.
A Militarist MoH, either Julius or Manlius.
A Plutocrat Rome Consul.
A Populist Field Consul.
A Conservative Censor (who agrees not to prosecute)
And Pontifex back to the Progressives.

That way every faction gets something.

[JasonPratt]

Before I can post mat snapshots, officially starting the Senate Phase, I need to go back and take care of the Sulpy Situation again!

Coincidentally, ten minutes after I posted the resolution last night, AzTank who hadn’t seen that yet, contacted me to explain that he would contribute half of what was necessary to prevent I.I. from getting Sulpy.

I had interpreted his prior instruction, that he would cooperate with Tripoli in keeping Sulpy from the Aristocrats, to mean (absent further details) that so long as Tripoli contributed a proportionately major effort (which he did), AzTank would contribute enough remainder to foil I.I.

For this purpose, thanks to all 8 Talents from the Militarists, reducing I.I.'s target window to 1, Az needed to contribute 22 cash: thus even if Scipio final-bribed all his remaining 22 cash, he’d still only have a target window of 1 on a 2d6 roll: a necessary fail. (Consequently neither was there any reason for Scipio to contribute a final bribe.)

The only way I can think of to interpret AzTank’s new clarification, is that once Tripoli’s 8 cash brings down I.I.’s target window to 1, Az would pre-emptively contribute enough to make sure Scipio’s final bid never brought the target window back up past 5. In other words, Az would contribute counterbribes equal to Scipio’s 22 -5 +1 = 18 Talents. From that point I.I. will have to launch 19 final cash at least to get a minimum 2.78% chance to win (i.e. 18 cash to overcome Az’s 18 bribe, getting back to a +1 window, plus 1 more cash to bump his target window up to 2, which is at least a possible 2d6 total); and all 22 cash to get, at most, a 27.78% chance of winning (target window 5 or less).

In short, this means in effect:

(1) Conservative cash goes back up 4, from 26 to 30.

(2) Sulpy’s personal cash goes back down 4, from 76 to 72.

(3) I must now hear from I.I. about whether he intends for Scipio to contribute his final 22 cash (or less?!) for a target window of 5 (or less!)

[JasonPratt]

My proposal is definitely for option 2, board the legions on the fleets and send everything under Scipio, who voids the war's D/S results for the naval battle and the land battle. We should have enough surplus fleets that we can lose a few without taking any legion losses before they even land.

This is very correct, considering my house rules for reasonable Legion/Fleet dispositions. 

I note that my house rule includes an implication, also reasonable, that Legions being transported in a naval combat situation, are limited by the number of Fleets, one to one. (Supply Fleets aren't the same thing as transport: they just secure the sea lane from further harassment and make sure a steady stream of supplies arrives in enough quantities to continue the campaign.)

So if you send 10 Fleets, you can only transport 10 Legions in as simultaneous attack under the same commander, and all of them will take losses parallel with the Fleets. If you send 25 Fleets along with only 10 Legions, the first 15 Fleets will take casualties first, not the reserve Fleets carrying the Legions -- except in case of a Disaster result, in which case I'll come up with some kind of random Fleet/Legion pairing and test for casualties. (I might not do so for a mere "Standoff" result, which doesn't seem like something that would necessarily penetrate through to threaten Legion bearing Fleets.)

[IncompetentIdiot]

My proposal is definitely for option 2, board the legions on the fleets and send everything under Scipio, who voids the war's D/S results for the naval battle and the land battle. We should have enough surplus fleets that we can lose a few without taking any legion losses before they even land.

Regarding Consuls, I suggest:

Scipio for Dictator.
A Militarist MoH, either Julius or Manlius.
A Plutocrat Rome Consul.
A Populist Field Consul.
A Conservative Censor (who agrees not to prosecute)
And Pontifex back to the Progressives.

That way every faction gets something.

This arrangement is what I'd prefer as well.

[JasonPratt]

I.I. takes the risk! (Based on a p-mail, not on his comment agreeing to the basic shape of Erax's plan.)

If he wins, he gains control of boocoos of cash. If he loses, well, no one else will be getting that pot anytime soon.

This isn't a game-crucial roll (as far as I know), but control and/or loss of gobs of cash are at stake, so I rolled it over at ArmDrag, where for no reason I can discover the module now regards all rolls as tampered with. 

https://www.armchairdragoons.com/forum/index.php?topic=627.new#new

I can (kind of) prove it wasn't, since the forum software will mark a post as edited, and I haven't edited the post. But anyway.

I.I. loses the roll (with an automatic losing total of 10). Scipio's cash goes to zero. Sulpy's cash goes to freaking NINETY-FOUR TALENTS. (I think, if I did the math correctly. Checking is allowed and encouraged.  )

No one downstream of I.I. will be able to challenge that this Turn, either.

All that's left-over from the Forum Phase, is for Quinctius (per I.I.'s instructions, contingent on whether he got Sulpy or not) to spend his 5 cash buying his 4th knight. Normal vote tally goes up to 14. (Keeping in mind that Valerius is off at Gallia Cisalpina, watching the 2nd Punic War roll over the Alps, and unable to vote in the Senate this Phase.)

Snapshots coming soon! I hope! (Along with aspirin chewed up like BC Powder!)

[JasonPratt]

TURN TWELVE -- SENATE PHASE
---------------------------

I’ve overstrained somewhat in the past few days on various projects, and a headache is on the way to taking me down for the night. So as much as I want to, I’m not adding commentary to the snapshots this time. Maybe later.

Clockwise from Player One:



















The Forum currently after the Forum Phase:


Remember, those two Evil Omens are going to screw with most dice rolls by two points to the worse! (That’s a reminder to me, too. )


Here are the three Wars on the board, stacked up nicely in the Unprosecuted, Immanent, and Inactive rows.


(The Enemy Leader cut-off to the upper right, is Philip of Macedon, waiting around in the Curia to see if he’ll die of natural causes before his next War gets drawn. He will immediately Activate and boost the next Macedon War! -- but that isn’t a problem this Turn.)

Currently I’ve got the Republic Treasury marked at 137 Talents. Current income +100, and you won’t get any taxes from Gallia Cisalpina because they’re about to be sieged by the 2nd Punic War! Current expected expenses: -58 unit upkeep; -20 for the 1st Punic War; -20 for the 2nd Punic War upcoming.

Active Legions: 12 Regular, 5 Vets.
Potential Legions: 8 in the Force Pool.
Active Fleets: 12.
Potential Fleets: 13.

AzTank’s Conservative Statesman Lucius Aemilius Paullus Macedonicus is currently the Dictator, thus the Presiding Magistrate to start the Senate.

First Mandatory Business: voting in two new Consuls. (Not Paullus, nor current Consuls Aelius and Manlius of the Militarists.)

[Tripoli]

My proposal is definitely for option 2, board the legions on the fleets and send everything under Scipio, who voids the war's D/S results for the naval battle and the land battle. We should have enough surplus fleets that we can lose a few without taking any legion losses before they even land.

Regarding Consuls, I suggest:

Scipio for Dictator.
A Militarist MoH, either Julius or Manlius.
A Plutocrat Rome Consul.
A Populist Field Consul.
A Conservative Censor (who agrees not to prosecute)
And Pontifex back to the Progressives.

That way every faction gets something.

This arrangement is what I'd prefer as well.

While I understand the sentiment of everybody getting something, I believe it is in the best interest of Rome to have the Field counsel be a militarist.  First of all, I'm not terribly excited about the prospect, given the very real chance of a militarist senator dying in a battle against the Carthaginians.  I actually don't benefit much from being MoH, and the risk of losing one of my senators makes the proposition dubious for my faction.  However, keeping the Republic alive is more important.  So I am willing to risk one of my senators as MoH.  However, I don't believe that this is the best course for the Republic. What is important is winning the 1st Punic War before the 2nd becomes active.  With a -2 bad omen modifier, and Hamilcar in command, and the very real possibility of losing legions in the naval battle, we will need to have the strongest field counsel available.  That indicates  a militarist.  Alternatively, we can have the entire campaign under the command of a Dictator/MoH, but that risks giving the dictator a "double tap" boost in popularity and influence if they do win both engagements, something that because of balance of power considerations the Senate may not want.  THerefore, I believe the best course of action is to have a Dictator/MoH with a large fleet and a militarist land commander both maximizes the chance of winning, minimizes the possible Roman losses, and ensures that no player unduly benefits, which is important to us keeping the Republic going.