Author Topic: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR  (Read 874 times)

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Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2018, 06:39:42 AM »
7 August

The news cycles is still reporting a Republican lead in the Senate campaign.


A look at the current polling shows a map that is essentially unchanged from yesterday:



With not much new happening in the polling world, I begin building the RNC organization in Arizona to help McSally in her race (denoted by the  '-->' arrow on the 5th column of the table below).  I also  increase polling in both Arizona and West Virginia (note: this is denoted by the '-->' arrow on the second column of the table below.  This will give me a more accurate poll than the national polls I'm currently using.  In turn, this will help guide me on where I want to put additional resources.  In Arizona, McSally looks vulnerable despite the recent mis-step by the Democrat party on running on the immigration issue, so I need to get a better understanding of how much to commit to her campaign.  Next turn, I may do some polling on immigration to see if running an advertisement there will improve McSally's run.   Similarly, I do additional polling in West Virginia.  There, the Republican candidate is comfortably ahead of the Democratic incumbent, so I'm not sure how much I want to pile on in that race, when potentially I could put the resources to Ohio or other light blue states.




Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2018, 07:21:23 AM »
8 August

The news cycle continues to report a Republican lead in the national senate picture.  Polling now shows a slight (+1 R) lead in Missouri.


While the picture is improving for the RNC, a dive into the polls shows the DNC has some momentum in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota.  (denoted by the "+2" in the 4th column below)


Looking at Florida, it looks like the RNC is already doing what can be done there.  An advertisement stressing Trump support is being cut, polling is being done, and  the RNC organization is being built up. The result of this is that the Republican  share of the vote appears to slowly outstripping the Democrat vote by +0.1 to -0.3 this turn.  The DNC is targeting Florida, so I'll have to continue to do a dive into the polling to see what issues I can exploit. 


I expand polling in Ohio, Tennessee, Montana and North Dakota.  Tomorrow, the new advertisements should come out, and this latest round of polling will be used to determine where to air them.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2018, 08:13:20 PM »
9 August
The national picture appears to be relatively unchanged.  Missouri are now R +2.  Ohio, North Dakota, and Tennesee are D+2, while West Virginia is now a toss up.



Looking at the DNC's activities, They have targeted Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan and Minnesota (3rd column in the table below).  They are also  putting foot soldiers into Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota and Arizona (See the sixth column on the table below).
 


To respond to this, I will have Trump do some barnstorming in Florida, as he has a net positive effect there.  I also begin targeting and putting foot soldiers and polling into Indiana as a response to the DNC efforts there.  Finally, I target North Dakota.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2018, 06:02:54 PM »
10 August

Well, well, well.  Polling is improving in Arizona, with a +3 gain for the Republican candidate there.  Likewise, polling shows significant gains in Tennessee, Indiana, and North Dakota. Some of this may be because of my polling coming on-lie (see text underneath the map below).   Unfortunately, I apparently did not get POTUS to the airplane to Florida, so he wasted his barn storming abilities in New York.  Apparently, I need to read the manual on moving my surrogates  ??? 



I start to make some ads targeted on Florida and Indiana.  Additionally, the Minnesota ad appears to be very powerful, so I begin running it in Minnesota, although the D +15 polling makes it unlikely that it will swing the state.  However, it might force the DNC to put more resources to MN.  These actions use up my command points, finishing the turn.

 

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2018, 11:34:57 AM »
Well, he is the President, he may have had something yuge to deal with.  :D
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Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2018, 02:39:04 PM »
11 August
I'm a little behind on posting.  I will try to get back on track over then next couple of days. 

Today's news is that the DNC releases an attack ad. However, it appears that it is a fairly weak ad, and leaves an opening for the RNC to successfully spin it. 


The election map shows too many toss up states.  However, I have neglected building the ad campaign needed to effectively compete. 



I create another surrogate, VPOTUS Pence, for his barnstorming ability.  I think he might be better in areas where anti-Trump sentiment is high.  I also s begin creating advertisements targeting voters in the North Dakota on both Trump and Leadership, which have high positives for the Republicans. I also send foot soldiers to West Virginia, to reinforce the Republican effort against the incumbent Democratic senator.

Real World Polling

Earlier this summer, Real World RCP has Cramer ahead in North Dakota by 0.5% (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html ).  In 2016, Trump won the state by 36 points, (https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/23/politics/enten-poll-of-the-week-north-dakota-democrat-senate/index.html ).  As National Review points out,  Heikamp has voted against most of the Trump agenda, so she will likely find significant headwinds battling against this level of support, despite the fack she has a 2:1 funding advantage over her opponent. (https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/08/heidi-heitkamp-voting-record-own-worst-enemy/)  Based on this, her ability to hold onto this seat is far from certain. In July, Roll Call moved this seat to “Leans Republican,” and I suspect that is probably understating the case. (https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ratings-change-two-top-senate-races-shift-out-of-toss-up)
« Last Edit: August 21, 2018, 02:43:01 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2018, 03:02:17 PM »
12 August

The DNC rolls out two more attack advertisements, one on health care and one on tax rates.  My spreadsheet shows that while both issues favor the DNC in the battleground states, the tax rates issue favors them less.  Accordingly, I put all my spin points on this issue.



The polling map shows North Dakota, Missouri and West Virginia as toss ups, with Indiana going for the Democratic party



The DNC appears to be making ad buys in Ohio, Indian, Montana, North Dakota and Arizona (see the last column on the image below).  With only two points available this turn, I strengthen the party organization in West Virginia.  Next turn, I will begin making more advertisements in some of the battleground states.


« Last Edit: August 21, 2018, 07:20:55 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2018, 04:07:43 PM »
13-14 August

The election map is looking increasingly bad for the Republicans, who are now projected to have only 50 seats, with three toss-ups.  With only 2 CPs, I am limited to running an ad in North Dakota and targeting Arizona.


« Last Edit: August 21, 2018, 07:20:07 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2018, 02:16:14 PM »
15-16 August

I start the 15 August turn with only 2 command points, limiting my ability to take much action beyond beginning to run advertisements in Florida.  Pollilng continues to be problematic, with Montana and North Dakota either leaning Democratic, or a toss-up.



On 16 August I finish creating several successful advertisements addressing Trump Support and Leadership.  I begin running these ads in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Florida and West Virginia.  VPOTUS Pence is also available today, so I have him begin barnstroming for Mike Braun, the Republican challenger in Indiana.


Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2018, 04:16:37 PM »
17-24 August

Despite my best efforts, I've been having trouble keeping to my original intent to do a day-by-day campaign tracking the current senate race.  I'm going to switch to a weekly update until I get caught up  :-[

For the week for 17-24 August, I realize that my cash burn rate is too high, with only  $80.3 million left by the end of August.   I create two fund raising surrogates: Mitch McConell and  the head of the RNC, Ronna McDaniel.  While neither is as good as the POTUS or VPOTUS in fundraising, I need Trump and Pence to get out the vote.  I also start creating cheaper radio and web-based advertisements, while saving my powder for the more expensive TV ads for later in the campaign.

The DNC's ads seem to be directed mainly at Health Care and the Economy.  Thus far, these don't seem to be making much headway.  Currently, the RNC is slated to pick up Florida and Missouri, and West Virginia too close to call.  Arizona and North Dakota are also in the toss up category, so current projectsion have the RNC  picking  up as many as 54 seats.