Author Topic: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR  (Read 462 times)

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Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2018, 06:39:42 AM »
7 August

The news cycles is still reporting a Republican lead in the Senate campaign.


A look at the current polling shows a map that is essentially unchanged from yesterday:



With not much new happening in the polling world, I begin building the RNC organization in Arizona to help McSally in her race (denoted by the  '-->' arrow on the 5th column of the table below).  I also  increase polling in both Arizona and West Virginia (note: this is denoted by the '-->' arrow on the second column of the table below.  This will give me a more accurate poll than the national polls I'm currently using.  In turn, this will help guide me on where I want to put additional resources.  In Arizona, McSally looks vulnerable despite the recent mis-step by the Democrat party on running on the immigration issue, so I need to get a better understanding of how much to commit to her campaign.  Next turn, I may do some polling on immigration to see if running an advertisement there will improve McSally's run.   Similarly, I do additional polling in West Virginia.  There, the Republican candidate is comfortably ahead of the Democratic incumbent, so I'm not sure how much I want to pile on in that race, when potentially I could put the resources to Ohio or other light blue states.




Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2018, 07:21:23 AM »
8 August

The news cycle continues to report a Republican lead in the national senate picture.  Polling now shows a slight (+1 R) lead in Missouri.


While the picture is improving for the RNC, a dive into the polls shows the DNC has some momentum in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota.  (denoted by the "+2" in the 4th column below)


Looking at Florida, it looks like the RNC is already doing what can be done there.  An advertisement stressing Trump support is being cut, polling is being done, and  the RNC organization is being built up. The result of this is that the Republican  share of the vote appears to slowly outstripping the Democrat vote by +0.1 to -0.3 this turn.  The DNC is targeting Florida, so I'll have to continue to do a dive into the polling to see what issues I can exploit. 


I expand polling in Ohio, Tennessee, Montana and North Dakota.  Tomorrow, the new advertisements should come out, and this latest round of polling will be used to determine where to air them.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2018, 08:13:20 PM »
9 August
The national picture appears to be relatively unchanged.  Missouri are now R +2.  Ohio, North Dakota, and Tennesee are D+2, while West Virginia is now a toss up.



Looking at the DNC's activities, They have targeted Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan and Minnesota (3rd column in the table below).  They are also  putting foot soldiers into Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota and Arizona (See the sixth column on the table below).
 


To respond to this, I will have Trump do some barnstorming in Florida, as he has a net positive effect there.  I also begin targeting and putting foot soldiers and polling into Indiana as a response to the DNC efforts there.  Finally, I target North Dakota.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2018, 06:02:54 PM »
10 August

Well, well, well.  Polling is improving in Arizona, with a +3 gain for the Republican candidate there.  Likewise, polling shows significant gains in Tennessee, Indiana, and North Dakota. Some of this may be because of my polling coming on-lie (see text underneath the map below).   Unfortunately, I apparently did not get POTUS to the airplane to Florida, so he wasted his barn storming abilities in New York.  Apparently, I need to read the manual on moving my surrogates  ??? 



I start to make some ads targeted on Florida and Indiana.  Additionally, the Minnesota ad appears to be very powerful, so I begin running it in Minnesota, although the D +15 polling makes it unlikely that it will swing the state.  However, it might force the DNC to put more resources to MN.  These actions use up my command points, finishing the turn.

 

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2018, 11:34:57 AM »
Well, he is the President, he may have had something yuge to deal with.  :D
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