Author Topic: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR  (Read 889 times)

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Offline Tripoli

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US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« on: July 01, 2018, 06:38:26 PM »
I've got a proposal for a possible group AAR: 270Soft has an single-player election simulator called "Congress Infinity," that allows for simulating the US Senate elections in November 2018.  See
https://270soft.com/us-election-games/congress-election-game-2018/

THe game is available for either Mac or PC for $19.95.

To summarize the game, it lets the player play the role of the head of the RNC or DNC and with daily turns provide resources to the various senate campaigns, with the goal of maximizing the number of wins for your party in November.  Turns can be daily or weekly, beginning on either 1 August 2018, or 1 September 2018. The game also allows you to edit the scenario file, so you can start the game with accurate polling. 

What I am proposing (for anyone who is interested) to run a tournament (or alternatively, simply AARs), beginning on 1 August and tracking day-for-day the 2018 Congressional election.  Between now and 1 August I would alter the scenario file so that it would have the most up to date polling.  The objective of the tournament would be to see whose AAR came closest to matching the actual results of the 2018 election.    Is this idea of any interest to anyone?  If not, I'm still planning on doing it, and posting the AAR here.

« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 06:35:24 PM by Tripoli »


Offline JasonPratt

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Re: Crowd Sourcing an Election: A proposed AAR
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2018, 07:05:10 PM »
Interesting. I have either this or its presidential campaign (maybe both), for some earlier year, but have never played it.

I'm going to be involved in a couple of forum games already so I'll provisionally pass, but I'll be watching any AARs here with great interest!  O:-)
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Offline airboy

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Re: Crowd Sourcing an Election: A proposed AAR
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2018, 09:19:54 PM »
Very interesting, but I will be traveling for two weeks during that time frame.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2018, 07:19:12 PM »
1 August 2018
I'm kicking off the 2018 Congress Infinity Election AAR two days late.  The ground rules for my play of the AAR are that I will post a move every day from now until the election, and then compare the results with the 2018 US election.  I will be playing this in real time, and the Republican National Comittee, with the computer playing the Democratic National Comittee.  Although I am starting 2 days late, which I will catch up by this Sunday. I am using the most current version of the game (v. 2.8.4) which was just released last week.

DISCLAIMER:  I am playing the vanilla version of the 2018 scenario.  I am not responsible for any assumptions or interpretations made by the game or its designers and will try to beat the computer scenario as it is presented.   While I may discuss politics and strategy in this series, it will be in the context of general election politics and strategy.  Occasionally, I will also add at the bottom of my posts real world polling data or events to demonstrate differences between the game and what current polling and/or events are portraying.

For starters, here is the game's overview of the Republican party characteristics and strength in each:



  The game gives the Democratic party similar characteristics, except the Democratic party has only a "3" fundraising strength, but a "4" rating in "Spin," indicating that all things being equal, the  Republicans will lose battles in the press.


« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 07:49:27 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2018, 07:28:02 PM »
The current polling map looks like this:



It shows that current polling shows the Republicans are estimated to hold 51 safe seats, with an additional 3 seats in play, and one (Florida) being a toss up.  The game does randomize the polling a little, so this projected map may not actually reflect the real life map, but it is close.

The graphic below shows each of the most vulnerable states, and how far apart the state populace is from the national platform:



And the RNC national platform addresses the following 22 issues, and how far the platform deviates from the opinion nationally:






« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 07:30:22 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2018, 07:32:44 PM »
Strategy

I’ve created Table 1 below  to reduce some to the information contained in the game to make my decisions easier for the reader of this AAR to digest.  It shows the party that currently holds the seat, the current polling advantage of  the Republican candidate for the seat.  The “Rplat delta” and “Dplat Delta” show how far off the Republican platform and Democratic platform differ from the voters in that state.  A larger number indicates a greater distance between the party’s platform and the voters, ie, a small number is better.  The “R Plat Advt”  column is the difference between the “Rplat delta “and “Rplat delta”.  The larger the number in this column, the better it is for the Republicans.  Negative numbers are bad for the Republicans.

Table 1

State   Incumbent             R Advt %   Rplat delta           Dplat Delta   R Plat Advt
Indiana   D                         1             19                         27                 8
Missouri   D                         6               9                         37               28
Tennessee   R                         6               8                         37               29
Florida   D                         0               9                         28                     9
Minnesota   D                        -1              32                         15                  -17
Michigan   D                        -4              29                         23                -6
Arizona   R                        -5              14                         31                17
New Mexico   D                -6              23                         23                  0
Ohio   D                                -6              25                         22                 -3
Pennsylvania   D                -8              30                         16               -14
Montana   D                      -10                7                         38                 31
West Virginia   D                 8              15                         31                 16
Texas   R                         7                8                         37                 29

Based on this table, I will attempt to flip Indiana, Missouri, Florida and West Virginia.  Because Montana gives the Republicans such a platform advantage, I will also see if I can flip that seat, although the -10% polling will be a significant dissavantage to overcome. Similarly, I will make a play for Ohio and Minnesota and New Mexico,   if for no other reason than to force the Democrats to defend the seat.   
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 07:42:20 PM by Tripoli »

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2018, 07:48:03 PM »
I don't understand the data well enough to understand what you mean by "flipping" Missouri, Indiana, and West VA. WV is solid red, and the others are pink on the map. Do you mean strengthening by "flipping"?  ??? But then you're going to flip Montana which is dark blue. Making a play for the light blue NM, MN, and OH, I understand, but those aren't flipping (from blue to red)?
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Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

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Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2018, 07:52:41 PM »
Quote
I don't understand the data well enough to understand what you mean by "flipping" Missouri, Indiana, and West VA. WV is solid red, and the others are pink on the map. Do you mean strengthening by "flipping"?  ??? But then you're going to flip Montana which is dark blue. Making a play for the light blue NM, MN, and OH, I understand, but those aren't flipping (from blue to red)?

Sorry, in this context, "Flipping" means to change the seat from Democratic to Republican. Indiana, WVA, Missouri and Indiana are currently held by Democratic senators. The Red and Blue colors on the map is the strength of the polling for each party in that state, and not a reflection of who holds the seat: Dark red equals strong Republican support/advantage, light blue means moderate Democratic support/advantage, etc.  Florida is white, as it is a toss-up.  The gray states don't have a senator running for election this cycle.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 08:02:29 PM by Tripoli »

Offline JasonPratt

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2018, 07:55:48 PM »
Ah, got it!  O0
FIRE IN THE GROGS TOO -- a four-player full team mp of GMT's Vietnam War boardgame Fire in the Lake, recreated in TTS.

The GROGPUBLIC OF ROME ongoing forum game thread

Survive Harder! In the grim darkness of the bowl there is only, um, Amazons. And tentacles and midgets. Not remotely what you're thinking! ...okay, maybe a little remotely.

PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Season One complete; Fantasy Wars AAR

The full pdf of Cry of Justice has been posted to the Grogheads Book category here.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2018, 05:05:39 PM »
1 August
Strategy Development
  I review each of the battleground states to see what issues their population considers important.  To do this, the game requires me to look at each state separately.  Not wanting to burden ya'll with looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 40+ screens, I created the excel table below:



It shows that in seven of the battleground states, Trump is a postive factor.  Only in Minnesota and in New Mexico is he a negative.  SImilarly, the issue of Russian influence/Special Counsel probe and the Immigration and role of government issue are consistent positive advantages across the board in battleground states.  Because of this, I begin to create a national advertisement on the immigration issue, as it seems to be a good wedge issue.  The Ad will take a couple of days to develop. 


 Because Trump seems to be a positive issue in some of the Battleground states,  I also being to activate him as a "surrogate" to both barnstorm and possibly fundraise.



It will take a couple of days to complete this process, so in the meantime, I will develop an ad for local markets emphasizing Trump.  I also invest in research in the Battleground states of Missouri and increasing my organization strength in Indiana as well as opposition research to overcome the democratic incumbent's organizational strength advantage there.  These actions will use my 8 CPs for the turn.  The research and preparing Trump to campaign will further expend 3 CPs for the next 5 turns, leaving me with only 5 CPs a turn until 5 August.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 05:14:05 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2018, 05:24:47 PM »
2 August 218

Now it is time to build up my organizational strength is some other competitive states.  It is important to do this early, as it takes time to deploy these organizational assets.   I spend 4 of my 5 CPs sending foot soldiers, building organizational strength and conducting polling in Florida.  With a Republican platform advantage of +9, and current polling showing a dead heat, this offers an opportunity to pick up a Democratic-held seat.  I also send some foot soldiers to Arizona to help shore up the Republican incumbent, who is trailing her Democratic opponent.



« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 05:41:47 PM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2018, 06:22:14 PM »
3 August 2018

The first polling coming in from Missouri shows that the state is shifting to a toss up, from the earlier +6 Republican (R +6) advantage.  My national and Indiana specific ads are completed, so I will begin to run those.  Based on the implosion of the Missouri polls, I target the state, which will make my efforts there more effective.



I also begin to run the national immigration advertisement in Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico and Montana.  These are the markets that according to the polling, will give the advertisment will have the most positive impact in.



I spend my last CP on buying an expensive advertisement on leadership for Minnesota.  The RNC doesn't have much of an opportunity here on any specific issue, but leadership is a highly rated issue that the RNC can run on in Minnesota.  This is my attempt to steal a  seat, or at least force the DNC to defend it.

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2018, 06:34:26 PM »
4 August 2018

The latest rounds of polling show that the previous Missouri result may have been bad polling, as the current poll shows Missouri at a +2 R.  However, the various activities has reduced me to only 1 CP this turn, so I begin developing an expensive national pro Trump advertisement, to dovetail with the POTUS doing barnstorming for the RNC.

 

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2018, 01:08:32 PM »
5 August 2018

Polling now shows the RNC with a +1 R  advantage in the battleground states of Florida, Indiana and Missouri.




 There are two senate races in Minnesota this year: Amy Klobuchar (D) v. Jim Newberger (R) in MN-1 and in a special election to fill Al Frankin's seat is Tina Smith (D) and Karin Housley (R) in MN-2.  The Klobuchar/Newberger race looks unwinnable, as Klobuchar has a D +12 advantage.  However, there is only a +1 advantage in the the race between Tina Smith (D) and Karin Housley (R) in Minnesota.  I'm going to put some resources towards polling in Minnesota, as there is a chance I can pull an upset in MN-2.  I also target Florida to improve my chances there.  These actions use all my CPs, so the turn ends.

Real World Polling
According to RCP, the Minnesota race between Smith and Housley was running in favor of Smith by  49/35 on 29 July. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/mn/minnesota_senate_special_election_housley_vs_smith-6303.html    Thus, 16% are undecided. This seat is also evaluated as "Lean Democrat" by 270towin.   https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election-race-ratings/ The difference between RCP's 49/35 split and 270towin's "Lean Democrat" may indicate that there is a softening of support for Smith in RL. 


« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 06:40:14 AM by Tripoli »

Offline Tripoli

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Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2018, 07:51:11 PM »
6 August 2018

the game day starts off with a good news story that the Republicans are polling well, and may get a Senate majority.



 This gives the RNC an opportunity to spin the story.  And the RNC has no better guy for that job than my newly activated surrogate, POTUS himself, Donald Trump.  Release the Trumpster!

After giving POTUS our half of the two-man launch code for his Twitter feed, I take stock of the latest polling.  While good, it isn't great.





It looks like we've lost ground in Minnesota-2, Florida and Missouri.  OF note, the DNC is running ads against Republican McSally in Arizona on the Russian interference issue.  I'm surprised they think that will work in Arizona, as the game shows a Republican advantage in Arizona on that issue.  Possibly that is the reaons the state went from a D+5 to a to a toss up this turn?   

WIth only 2 CPs left, I spend them on targeting West Virginia and close out the turn. (states that are targeted are denoted by the column with the eyeball in the last image above).

Real World Polling
The Arizona race is the run for retiring Senator Jeff Flake.  According to RCP, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema as a D-4 to D+7 advantage here, possibly enhanced by the  entrance of former Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio into the race and potentially splitting  the populist vote. 
« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 06:40:54 AM by Tripoli »