Hurricane Irma

[mirth]

More importantly, will you get any good waves in RI from Irma?

Hopefully not straight into his living room.

[Toonces]

^ Between Irma and Jose, we are looking at an unprecedented run of good swell here.  Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be epic.

Gus, there is a high pressure system in the mid-Atlantic (Bermuda High) that acts like a big blocking mechanism for the storm.  Hurricanes like to bend clockwise in the northern hemisphere but the high is preventing that and steering it westward.

The jet stream, which is up around us, is going to dip down and push the high eastward and/or weaken it, allowing Irma to curve northward.  But figuring out the timing and strength of the jet stream dip, and how that will actually interact with the high, is very difficult.  Regardless, though, as the high moves eastward it will allow Irma to curve.

[mirth]

I knew you weather weenies were good for something!  O0

[Gusington]

Got it - tks BRAH

[Toonces]

Let me see if this works...



If the image shows, it depicts surface winds.  You can see the center of the high pressure right in the middle, and the winds traveling clockwise around it.  You can see where the winds back off down around Florida, and how Irma is riding the boundary.

[Toonces]

This is the 48 hour forecast.  You can see how the high has moved to the east, allowing Irma to bend northward.  These are surface winds; The second lower image is higher in the atmosphere and shows the jet stream in 48 hours.

[Toonces]

Man alive I feel like a nerd now.   :nerd:

[mirth]

You were a nerd before - Toonces the Surfing Nerd

[Gusington]

Toonces the Surd.

I couldn't see either image above in my iPad.

[trailrunner]

I could not see the images on my MacBook whatever I have.

[Gusington]

Toonces the Well Meaning Yet Partially Ineffective Surd.

[Toonces]

Nah, they don't show on my other computer; must be a security firewall.  Navy websites are like that sometimes - I had to add an exception to get onto the website.

Oh well.

[mirth]

He's gaslighting us.

[Toonces]

I'll see if I can find some charts on another site tomorrow morning.  I should have a few minutes before class.

[Toonces]

This is a mid-level analysis where you can see the blocking high.  Not as sexy as the model picture though.



48 hour forecast. You can see how the high has weakened and moved north and east.