4 am, June 25, 1944: Operation Dauntless

Started by MengJiao, June 13, 2017, 08:03:38 PM

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MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on June 27, 2017, 04:31:53 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on June 26, 2017, 06:16:31 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on June 25, 2017, 09:36:10 PM

  And they held on.    Here's the situation at about 2pm:

  4pm -- British move starts and they put up air recon.  The circled red 14 is a reminder that that asset will be gone when Epsom starts on turn 14.
It's turn 9 and after 12 hours of battle, things are not going very well for either side: Panzer Lehr is barely holding on and the 49th is nowhere near its main objectives:

  Approaching 5:30 -- the 49th is slowing down and the 192 Bn of the 21st Pz has arrived.  Next turn KG Wunch will show up and that should make life very hard for the 49th.  And in a few more turns the 49th:
a) loses most of its Army level support as Epsom kicks off just to the east
b) is late to take its objectives around Ruaray
c) will face all the German Army-level reserves that it has drawn in on itself

So things look as grim in the game as they did for the 49th historically.

  Or even worse.  A late day thrust on the British left gets chewed up by a massive counter-attack heavy in Panthers.  One British Infantry battalion is out of action for a while and 7 Sherman and 4 Panther steps are wrecked:


MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on June 27, 2017, 08:39:39 PM


  Or even worse.  A late day thrust on the British left gets chewed up by a massive counter-attack heavy in Panthers.  One British Infantry battalion is out of action for a while and 7 Sherman and 4 Panther steps are wrecked:

  But life goes on and at dusk, the 49th blows a kilometer-wide hole in the German lines right at the carefully-placed divisional boundary.  The Germans can probably fix that up and the location of the boundary should make it easier.  Overall, it looks like the 49th is going to lose.  The game is all about points and in points...well in transport alone they are so far down that the German division boundary violations are of little importance:


MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on July 05, 2017, 07:20:49 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on June 27, 2017, 08:39:39 PM


  Or even worse.  A late day thrust on the British left gets chewed up by a massive counter-attack heavy in Panthers.  One British Infantry battalion is out of action for a while and 7 Sherman and 4 Panther steps are wrecked:

  But life goes on and at dusk, the 49th blows a kilometer-wide hole in the German lines right at the carefully-placed divisional boundary.  The Germans can probably fix that up and the location of the boundary should make it easier.  Overall, it looks like the 49th is going to lose.  The game is all about points and in points...well in transport alone they are so far down that the German division boundary violations are of little importance:

  Sunrise June 26 -- the 49th is still a kilometer or so short of Rauray (as happened historically) and has lost another 20 or so Shermans (five or so of which would still be burning as the sun rose).  The Germans are losing ground, but not very fast and their armored losses are somewhat less than those of the British (not counting 5 or 10 halftracks which would make their armored losses slightly greater than those of their foes).  According to the scenario, the 49th could now declare an increase in effort and give the Germans 9 points to use in various ways.  The increase in effort gives the 49th another infantry battalion, but since they would just be a big target I'm not going to increase the effort and anyway, I just spent all the 49th's reinforcement points on 2 squadrons of Shermans, which now puts them about 20 Shermans ahead despite their 20 Sherman losses.  So the 49th still has some hope of victory (ie in game terms doing at least slightly better than the 49th actually did).

MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on July 11, 2017, 05:19:12 PM
  So the 49th still has some hope of victory (ie in game terms doing at least slightly better than the 49th actually did).

  8:30 am:  The British pull the recon asset and are in a good position to take some more ground as the 12th SS begins to withdraw its armor in response to Epsom.

bayonetbrant

looks like an inevitable tide of Brits crashing on the SS rocks
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MengJiao

Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 18, 2017, 07:00:31 PM
looks like an inevitable tide of Brits crashing on the SS rocks

  Yeah.  The whole Normandy thing is kind of hard to imagine, but this game helps a bit.  One thing I did modify was the rule that armor is immune to regular combat -- which is only functional if there is a separate "capture isolated tanks without fuel or other minor problems" phase and the game has too many cranky details as it is.  So tanks fight like regular formations (in my version) and can take loses (optionally) and be forced to retreat etc,  I think this actually helps the Germans hold their line more as they did historically with small groups of tanks backing up a more active infantry defense.
  I may work out some other angles on making this game more functional.  I think it is over-fitted to some misleading data and overemphasizes certain types of information over more basic aspects of simple reality such as the fact that tanks need fuel and really don't do well all by themselves in dense, muddy farmland full of small fields, villages and orchards.
  Historically, the 49th pushed on to its objectives and held off the attacks of 5 SS Panzer Divisions (1st SS LSAF, 2nd Das Reich, 9th Cindy Lauper and 10th and 12th) so while the game is interesting -- I don't find a lot of it very convincing.

MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on July 18, 2017, 09:05:47 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 18, 2017, 07:00:31 PM
looks like an inevitable tide of Brits crashing on the SS rocks

  Yeah.  The whole Normandy thing is kind of hard to imagine, but this game helps a bit.

  1pm, June 26, rain.  No "mud" until 2:30.  The 49th is stuck about a kilometer short of Rauray with Tigers and Panthers lined up to keep them that from getting up the hill.   The rain and mud might help the 49th at this point since German armored range and movement are slightly reduced.  For the moment the 49th's biggest concern is probably on the west (which isn't quite in this image) where a German assault has almost isolated one British thrust.  I rechecked the victory conditions and the 49th is a bit ahead due to having taken Tessel Wood somewhat earlier than happened historically.

mirth

#22
Quote from: MengJiao on July 18, 2017, 09:05:47 PM
I may work out some other angles on making this game more functional.  I think it is over-fitted to some misleading data and overemphasizes certain types of information over more basic aspects of simple reality such as the fact that tanks need fuel and really don't do well all by themselves in dense, muddy farmland full of small fields, villages and orchards.

I'd have to play it a lot more before I reached that conclusion. The guy put a ton of research into the game and the mechanics are based off that meticulous research (rightly or wrongly).

I'm trying to think back on when I played this (it was about a year ago). My buddy and I played multiple scenarios over a marathon 3-day weekend. The game is almost relentless in its 'cranky details' as you nicely put it. The one thing I remember clearly is that the Germans, when dug in with a mix of infantry and AFV /AT support, were incredibly difficult for the Brits to overcome. I played German most of that weekend and I lost most of the games, but there was one city assault scenario were I smacked the Brits around pretty good and sent them cryin for momma.

I've never had a game feel like work to play more than this one. The detail of the rules is like nothing else I've ever seen in a game. It's more like a research project. And I'm not knocking the game. It's amazing and I had fun playing it. I think you'd almost have to adopt it as way of life to really learn to play it well.

I've really enjoyed following this AAR. Almost makes me want to take another go at the game.  :crazy2:
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MengJiao

Quote from: mirth on July 21, 2017, 05:26:16 AM
Quote from: MengJiao on July 18, 2017, 09:05:47 PM
I may work out some other angles on making this game more functional.  I think it is over-fitted to some misleading data and overemphasizes certain types of information over more basic aspects of simple reality such as the fact that tanks need fuel and really don't do well all by themselves in dense, muddy farmland full of small fields, villages and orchards.

I'd have to play it a lot more before I reached that conclusion. The guy put a ton of research into the game and the mechanics are based off that meticulous research (rightly or wrongly).

I'm trying to think back on when I played this (it was about a year ago). My buddy and I played multiple scenarios over a marathon 3-day weekend. The game is almost relentless in its 'cranky details' as you nicely put it. The one thing I remember clearly is that the Germans, when dug in with a mix of infantry and AFV /AT support, were incredibly difficult for the Brits to overcome. I played German most of that weekend and I lost most of the games, but there was one city assault scenario were I smacked the Brits around pretty good and sent them cryin for momma.

I've never had a game feel like work to play more than this one. The detail of the rules is like nothing else I've ever seen in a game. It's more like a research project. And I'm not knocking the game. It's amazing and I had fun playing it. I think you'd almost have to adopt it as way of life to really learn to play it well.

I've really enjoyed following this AAR. Almost makes me want to take another go at the game.  :crazy2:

   I think the mods I'm considering would tend to simplify things a bit.   I'm considering getting rid of strongpoints (except the ones on the map) and having a doubly entrenched state (yep -- two entrenchments) -- one of which could be taken and used by the enemy -- after all -- somewhere on this map the 49th stood of some massive attacks by multiple SS Panzer divisions on the 30th of July and inflicted about 25% of the total German armored loses for the whole Epson thing (July 25-July30) right then and there.  The power of the defense doesn't bother me if it is available to both sides.  Some kind of command control and re-supply phase would help slow the pace and let the Germans hang on more historically.  I'm also thinking about simplifying artillery and its effects a bit.
  A lot of things about the game are very cool: the German gear is interesting as usual and the Brits have plenty of cool stuff (for example the AVRE Churchills and the carrier platoons)...so i may work it over some.

MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on July 21, 2017, 07:16:49 PM

  A lot of things about the game are very cool: the German gear is interesting as usual and the Brits have plenty of cool stuff (for example the AVRE Churchills and the carrier platoons)...so i may work it over some.

   After a lot of very lucky rolls, the 49th is right at the gates of Rauray.  The mud has made German reactions a lot less ideal, but they got their line patched up and with some luck will hold on and get more points at nightfall for holding on which could prevent the 49th from getting better than a draw.


MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on July 24, 2017, 08:03:54 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on July 21, 2017, 07:16:49 PM

  A lot of things about the game are very cool: the German gear is interesting as usual and the Brits have plenty of cool stuff (for example the AVRE Churchills and the carrier platoons)...so i may work it over some.

   After a lot of very lucky rolls, the 49th is right at the gates of Rauray.  The mud has made German reactions a lot less ideal, but they got their line patched up and with some luck will hold on and get more points at nightfall for holding on which could prevent the 49th from getting better than a draw.

   After most of the German armor is withdrawn and much of the remainder is blown up, the 49th begins punching some big holes in the German lines.
Things are actually shaping up in an oddly historical way (if a day early) in that Rauray is taken and the other two eastern objectives seem possible, while (as historically) Vendes in the Panzer Lehr area is not likely to be taken by the British:


MengJiao

Quote from: MengJiao on July 31, 2017, 07:18:50 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on July 24, 2017, 08:03:54 PM
Quote from: MengJiao on July 21, 2017, 07:16:49 PM

  A lot of things about the game are very cool: the German gear is interesting as usual and the Brits have plenty of cool stuff (for example the AVRE Churchills and the carrier platoons)...so i may work it over some.

   After a lot of very lucky rolls, the 49th is right at the gates of Rauray.  The mud has made German reactions a lot less ideal, but they got their line patched up and with some luck will hold on and get more points at nightfall for holding on which could prevent the 49th from getting better than a draw.

   After most of the German armor is withdrawn and much of the remainder is blown up, the 49th begins punching some big holes in the German lines.
Things are actually shaping up in an oddly historical way (if a day early) in that Rauray is taken and the other two eastern objectives seem possible, while (as historically) Vendes in the Panzer Lehr area is not likely to be taken by the British:

  I checked the map after writing the above and found that The 49th had taken Vendes.  This was only a foretaste of the disaster that was about to ahistorically overwhelm the Germans.  After only a few more turns, it became clear that the Germans were going to be wiped out and or driven off the whole map.  Not good news.  I think some aspects of the game are a classic case of overfitting.  Overfitted models can drift into unmodelled dynamics and take off in unexpected directions.  In this case if the Brits pour on the armor and work on overwhelming the German armor bit-by-bit, when most of the German armor withdraws, then things accellerate rapidly into a total collaspe for the Germans.  If I play this game again I'll do several things:
1) Change the artillery/indirect fire rules to reduce die rolling
2) Set up some kind of command limits for the 49th (so that they can't attack with bits and pieces of half-wrecked formations for example)
3) Play a smaller scenario (where the overfitted modeling can't run away in an odd direction)

The game is moderately fun, but tends to be more work for minor effects than really seems to be needed.  For example, shooting artillery barages at tanks has a 3% chance of doing some kind of damage on the average -- BUT there are still all kinds of modifiers while I would think density of the barrage versus density of the target should account for most of any variations in the effects.