Russia could take Europe in... 48 hours?

Started by bayonetbrant, December 17, 2016, 05:24:02 PM

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OJsDad

Not to mention that an unstable ME keeps oil prices higher, which helps Putin's budget. 
'Here at NASA we all pee the same color.'  Al Harrison from the movie Hidden Figures.

Gusington

For sure. Instability feeds Putin and his Russia.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

ComradeP

#32
I'm less convinced by NATO's ability to immediately do much about a Russian military action each day.

Readiness and maintenance standards are low in Western European armed forces. Many of the newer EU members in Eastern Europe still use 1980's Soviet equipment.

The elephant in the room for me is that NATO members have not fought a large scale conventional conflict against a foe with comparable capabilities since WWII. In all conflicts afterwards, NATO members had significant advantages in one or more areas. The latest wars were all small wars against mostly poorly trained infantry units with little to no support weapons. With each passing month, more veterans of those conflicts also leave the armed forces. Russia on the other hand has recent experience in dealing with an actual army through the fighting in the Ukraine.

I recall a discussion with Starfury about how during Desert Storm Iraqi Soviet tank copies were, according to him, similar in capabilities to the M1 Abrams if the trained guys would be driving the Soviet tanks and the poorly trained people the M1's. That discussion didn't really solve the question, but Russian tanks today are significantly better than what the Iraqi's had during Desert Storm or afterwards.

Most Western European armies have not upgraded their anti-tank equipment to deal with countermeasures. Wargames are just games, but they make it quite clear that modernized 1980's anti-tank weapons don't cut it against modernized 1980's/early 1990's tanks with the latest countermeasures.

Air defence systems have historically been an area where Soviet and Russian weapons were/are on par or better than what NATO uses. I'm not sure what kind of a counter NATO has to large quantities of S-300 or S-400 systems, for example. As far as I know, NATO also doesn't use long range air-to-air missiles anymore similar to what was used during the Cold War.

As Mad Russian posted in a discussion about Flashpoint Campaigns, NATO relied in the late 1980's on everything being there at the right place on the right time. If that was the case, the Soviets were screwed. If that was not the case, NATO was in for a beating.

The talk about NATO air superiority is nice, but the reality is that initially the Russians would only be flying against Eastern European aircraft, with various degrees of training, and operating to a significant extent under the safe umbrella of their air defence system. NATO air defences in Eastern Europe are not great.

I'm very worried about the potential fate of a Dutch armoured infantry brigade sent to Eastern Europe, with well-trained infantry but 1980's anti-tank weapons, limited vehicle mounted anti-tank weapons and only a handful of tanks, aircraft and helicopters to support them.

There's also the issue that, due to there being much smaller armies now than during the Cold War, the number of strategic targets for missile strikes has decreased considerably. As most scenarios envision a Russian "surprise" attack or at least first strike, if Russia wants to wage a real war the damage from missiles to barracks and assembly areas could already be so great that the response of NATO will be seriously handicapped. As long as they don't go nuclear, I'm not sure NATO states will go nuclear even if they are attacked with strategic weapons.

Considering the near complete lack of NATO units with large scale conventional conflict experience, untried against a roughly equal foe or unavailable weapon systems and any kind of air superiority in the early stages being very much an "if", I fear the initial strike could be very bad for NATO members in Eastern Europe.

As always, the US will need time to get into the fight and troops across the Atlantic. One very important question is if the US will actually attempt to recapture the Baltic states if Russia is firmly in control after a few days and offers NATO peace.
The fact that these people drew inspiration...and then became chicken farmers - Cyrano, Dragon' Up The Past #45

Gusington

In the current climate I can definitely see the potential for the West to collectively 'meh' and give up on the Baltics if the Russians snatch them quickly enough and entrench firmly enough afterwards. I know that we have our NATO commitments but I don't know if the will and stomach is there to back it up.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

mirth

If NATO doesn't defend a member state, it's the end of the alliance. The Russians may make a move just for that end. Particularly once Trump is in office.
"45 minutes of pooping Tribbles being juggled by a drunken Horta would be better than Season 1 of TNG." - SirAndrewD

"you don't look at the mantelpiece when you're poking the fire" - Bawb

"Can't 'un' until you 'pre', son." - Gus

BanzaiCat


bbmike

"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence."
-Sherlock Holmes

"You know, just once I'd like to meet an alien menace that wasn't immune to bullets."
-Brigadier Lethbridge-Stewart

"There's a horror movie called Alien? That's really offensive. No wonder everyone keeps invading you!"
-The Doctor

"Before Man goes to the stars he should learn how to live on Earth."
-Clifford D. Simak

Gusington

I wonder out of 100 'Muricans polled, how many could find the Baltic Sea on a map.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

mirth

Quote from: Gusington on December 20, 2016, 06:28:37 PM
I wonder out of 100 'Muricans polled, how many could find the Baltic Sea on a map.

If they're true 'muricans, then it's zero.
"45 minutes of pooping Tribbles being juggled by a drunken Horta would be better than Season 1 of TNG." - SirAndrewD

"you don't look at the mantelpiece when you're poking the fire" - Bawb

"Can't 'un' until you 'pre', son." - Gus

bbmike

Quote from: Gusington on December 20, 2016, 06:28:37 PM
I wonder out of 100 'Muricans polled, how many could find the Baltic Sea on a map.

It's right next to Starbucks!
"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence."
-Sherlock Holmes

"You know, just once I'd like to meet an alien menace that wasn't immune to bullets."
-Brigadier Lethbridge-Stewart

"There's a horror movie called Alien? That's really offensive. No wonder everyone keeps invading you!"
-The Doctor

"Before Man goes to the stars he should learn how to live on Earth."
-Clifford D. Simak

Gusington

"Here Putin, take the Baltics. We can barely spell 'Baltics' anyway."

Case closed.


слава Україна!

We can't live under the threat of a c*nt because he's threatening nuclear Armageddon.

-JudgeDredd

JasonPratt

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mirth

"45 minutes of pooping Tribbles being juggled by a drunken Horta would be better than Season 1 of TNG." - SirAndrewD

"you don't look at the mantelpiece when you're poking the fire" - Bawb

"Can't 'un' until you 'pre', son." - Gus

BanzaiCat

More like, "Here, Putin, take California; most Americans don't know where it is anyway." Or most states in the Union for that matter. They're pretty close to Communist regardless so it should be a nice fit.

Steelgrave

Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 20, 2016, 09:29:11 PM
More like, "Here, Putin, take California; most Americans don't know where it is anyway." Or most states in the Union for that matter. They're pretty close to Communist regardless so it should be a nice fit.

Is trading California for the Baltics an option here.....I'm intrigued.