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OOTP18

Started by JudgeDredd, August 09, 2017, 02:53:38 PM

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Nefaro

Quote from: jamus34 on August 09, 2017, 05:58:08 PM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on August 09, 2017, 05:06:04 PM
I love baseball though  :notworthy:

Americans do love their "stamina" fans though with these looooong sports. 3 hours roughly for a televised game of baseball. American Football - 15 minute quarters making up a game which lasts 3-4 hours! Indy 500. Daytona 500.

But I do love 'em.   :clap:

The irony is I've started getting into futbol as I never really cared for baseball and quickly losing interest in football due to all the rules and regulations they keep adding.



The player contract rules and agreements in baseball, alone, should be enough to make you crazy.   #:-)

I'll take the situational rules of football over baseball any day.  Even now that they keep adding new ones nearly every year.


JudgeDredd

Quote from: Nefaro on August 10, 2017, 04:00:04 AM
Quote from: JudgeDredd on August 09, 2017, 04:06:01 PM
Thanks both.

He wasn't due to come back into play yet (it was only the 3rd game in)...I was just curious at the zero recovery rate.

However, after the 4th game, Paxton and Hernandez are now showing signs of recovery. There's another game to go where I imagine they will recover further.

Thanks.

I just thought it was odd not to see any movement in their recovery and it was coming round to their rotation.




IIRC, they don't recover a steady amount after pitching a game.  It's not a straight line going up.

They tend to stay down low for a few days, then start shooting back up in a day or two before they're up again.  To represent their throwing arm being sludge for a few days after a game - heavily penalized if put in during those essential recovery days right afterward.

They also don't always fully recover before their next showing.  Varies with player abilities, age, etc.   Some recover faster than others.  The amount of fatigue they suffer per game can also vary, I think.
Yes...that's what I (eventually) noticed. Thanks.
Alba gu' brath

Nefaro

In OOTP, it also took me awhile to realize just how much each player's Injury frequency rating (don't recall the specific name) matters.

Even the ones rated 'Normal' tend to get injured fairly regularly.  And the ones with poorer ratings?  Treat those injury prone players like the plague; get rid of those guys ASAP.  They'll be out due to injuries a notable portion of your seasons, doing nothing but being a pain in the ass & wasted expense.   >:(

DennisS

Quote from: KyzBP on August 09, 2017, 04:35:32 PM
As to your first problem, Judge, there's a setting somewhere that will start the most rested starting pitcher rather than following a strict rotation.

Problem 2, if the player is just coming off the DL the you can send him on a rehab assignment at one of your minor league clubs, usually AAA.  That will buy you some time to figure out who on your 25 man roster will be demoted to make room for your returning player.

I hope that helps.


Warning..for baseball nerds only.

Frequently...well, hell, almost ALWAYS, your worst starting pitcher will be skipped if there is a day off..so all other starters will get their normal start.

Consider the following...warning, there be math here.

Five starters, over 162 games, each get 32 starts, two get 33. If the starters give up 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 runs a game respectively, then you can anticipate giving up about 800 runs (162 times the five average). Here's where it gets interesting.

If you have your worst starter lose eight starts, due to days off, what happens? You don't give up his 56 runs (8 starts times the 7 he gives up). The OTHER starters would give up a total of .... doing the math... 28 runs, assuming each starter gets two of the extra starts each.

The difference between 56 runs allowed and 28 runs allowed is a LOT. It is the run differential that provides you your potential record, using the pythagorean method. Simply stated, it is your runs scored (squared), as compared to runs allowed (squared).

Example: You give up four (squared is 16), you score five (squared is 25). Your projected record is 25-16, or over a full MLB season, about 99 wins, and a certain playoff spot, and likely league champion, as a minimum.

WHEN you construct your team, look to do everything you can to enhance your run differential..and it don't matter how you do it. The Chicago Cubs have NEVER won a league championship without leading the National League in runs scored....as it's a hitters park. They win 10-8, or 9-6.

Ideally, you want to improve your hitting, defense, and pitching. You can absolutely project your record for the season by how you have constructed your team. As a minimum, I would strongly encourage you to do the following:

---Get an "Ace" pitcher. If you have five starters, four of whom have a 14-14 won loss record, and an Ace that is 26-4, then your overall starters records are 82-60, or a winning percentage of 57.7%, or about 94 wins, and a division championship. One, single, very dominant pitcher is just crucial if you want to compete.

--Get an "Ace" hitter at the top of the order. Consider Louis Aparacio, a Shortstop with the Chicago White Sox in the 50's and 60's. He had over 11 THOUSAND plate appearances in the Major Leagues, and is in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, in Cooperstown, New York. Amazing place, by the way.

What's up with Louie? His on-base percentage, or OBP, LIFETIME, was 31.1%. One year, 1962, over a FULL season, his OBP was 28.0%. He got on base, by hit or walk, 172 times, and reduced this by being caught stealing 12 times. Historical chances of a run being scored by a leadoff hitter getting on base is just over 40%. He scored, for the YEAR, just 72 runs....a terrible, terrible, terribly low total. In fact, he NEVER scored 100 runs in a season, ever.

A very good leadoff hitter will get on base 40% of the times..which means, over a 700-plate appearance season, getting on base about 280 times. This is 120 times MORE than Louie, representing about 50 additional runs.

50 additional runs scored will result in about 8 additional wins a season..the math gets a little fuzzy, but trust me.

Louis Aparicio was a very good defensive player, and he gets mad props for the runs he saved....but looking closely, it ain't much. The average shortstop made 4.89 per nine innings played, his rate was 5.05. So...every nine innings, he made .16 play...or about one play a WEEK higher than league average.

The executive summary is to place your high on-base players at the top of the lineup...and if you have one with a high SLUGGING percentage, bat him 3rd or 4th. There is another term, a wonderfully descriptive one, called OPS, which is On base Plus Slugging. Not that it doesn't state batting average plus slugging..it also values walks.

I have linked Aparicio and another player, one of my favorites, Wade Boggs. Wade, between 1993 and 2001, AVERAGED getting on base 330 times a year, very close to DOUBLE what Aparicio managed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aparilu01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boggswa01.shtml

KyzBP

Quote from: DennisS on August 10, 2017, 02:25:56 PM
Quote from: KyzBP on August 09, 2017, 04:35:32 PM
As to your first problem, Judge, there's a setting somewhere that will start the most rested starting pitcher rather than following a strict rotation.

Problem 2, if the player is just coming off the DL the you can send him on a rehab assignment at one of your minor league clubs, usually AAA.  That will buy you some time to figure out who on your 25 man roster will be demoted to make room for your returning player.

I hope that helps.


Warning..for baseball nerds only.

Frequently...well, hell, almost ALWAYS, your worst starting pitcher will be skipped if there is a day off..so all other starters will get their normal start.

Consider the following...warning, there be math here.

Five starters, over 162 games, each get 32 starts, two get 33. If the starters give up 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 runs a game respectively, then you can anticipate giving up about 800 runs (162 times the five average). Here's where it gets interesting.

If you have your worst starter lose eight starts, due to days off, what happens? You don't give up his 56 runs (8 starts times the 7 he gives up). The OTHER starters would give up a total of .... doing the math... 28 runs, assuming each starter gets two of the extra starts each.

The difference between 56 runs allowed and 28 runs allowed is a LOT. It is the run differential that provides you your potential record, using the pythagorean method. Simply stated, it is your runs scored (squared), as compared to runs allowed (squared).

Example: You give up four (squared is 16), you score five (squared is 25). Your projected record is 25-16, or over a full MLB season, about 99 wins, and a certain playoff spot, and likely league champion, as a minimum.

WHEN you construct your team, look to do everything you can to enhance your run differential..and it don't matter how you do it. The Chicago Cubs have NEVER won a league championship without leading the National League in runs scored....as it's a hitters park. They win 10-8, or 9-6.

Ideally, you want to improve your hitting, defense, and pitching. You can absolutely project your record for the season by how you have constructed your team. As a minimum, I would strongly encourage you to do the following:

---Get an "Ace" pitcher. If you have five starters, four of whom have a 14-14 won loss record, and an Ace that is 26-4, then your overall starters records are 82-60, or a winning percentage of 57.7%, or about 94 wins, and a division championship. One, single, very dominant pitcher is just crucial if you want to compete.

--Get an "Ace" hitter at the top of the order. Consider Louis Aparacio, a Shortstop with the Chicago White Sox in the 50's and 60's. He had over 11 THOUSAND plate appearances in the Major Leagues, and is in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, in Cooperstown, New York. Amazing place, by the way.

What's up with Louie? His on-base percentage, or OBP, LIFETIME, was 31.1%. One year, 1962, over a FULL season, his OBP was 28.0%. He got on base, by hit or walk, 172 times, and reduced this by being caught stealing 12 times. Historical chances of a run being scored by a leadoff hitter getting on base is just over 40%. He scored, for the YEAR, just 72 runs....a terrible, terrible, terribly low total. In fact, he NEVER scored 100 runs in a season, ever.

A very good leadoff hitter will get on base 40% of the times..which means, over a 700-plate appearance season, getting on base about 280 times. This is 120 times MORE than Louie, representing about 50 additional runs.

50 additional runs scored will result in about 8 additional wins a season..the math gets a little fuzzy, but trust me.

Louis Aparicio was a very good defensive player, and he gets mad props for the runs he saved....but looking closely, it ain't much. The average shortstop made 4.89 per nine innings played, his rate was 5.05. So...every nine innings, he made .16 play...or about one play a WEEK higher than league average.

The executive summary is to place your high on-base players at the top of the lineup...and if you have one with a high SLUGGING percentage, bat him 3rd or 4th. There is another term, a wonderfully descriptive one, called OPS, which is On base Plus Slugging. Not that it doesn't state batting average plus slugging..it also values walks.

I have linked Aparicio and another player, one of my favorites, Wade Boggs. Wade, between 1993 and 2001, AVERAGED getting on base 330 times a year, very close to DOUBLE what Aparicio managed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aparilu01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boggswa01.shtml
:notworthy:

matt3916


DennisS

Quote from: matt3916 on August 10, 2017, 05:08:06 PM
"Luis" Aparicio.

Yep..and I misspelled Aparicio once, too.  Doesn't stop the fact that he sucked, hard, and is the second worst player in the Hall of Fame.

matt3916

The worst being?  Maranville maybe?

DennisS

#23
Quote from: matt3916 on August 10, 2017, 06:02:31 PM
The worst being?  Maranville maybe?

Heh heh, thanks for noticing!

Maranville did get on base 3500 times or so. There is a place for longevity guys..guys like Ripken, or Biggio. If you are playing in the majors, you are adding value to your team.

Having said that, Maranville played in the dead ball era until age 31, so you have to look at his numbers a little differently. His OPS+ was likely above a hundred until 1921..then his utter lack of power allowed his OPS to crater, compared to the rest of the league.

Unlike Aparicio, his "D" as significantly higher than league average. I would say that his defense was probably top-tier, one of the top 2-3 in the league. I like defense. I like taking hits away from batters. Baseball-reference cites that Maranville has more assists at SS than any player in baseball history. Again, part of this is longevity, but he could play, on a rate basis, too.

Look up Ozzie Smith, the second greatest fielder at ANY position in history, and see how many assists he made. Compare him to Larry Bowa. Bowa, in a GOOD year, had about 450 assists. Ozzie one year had 621, way, WAY higher than any player in history.

There are tons of shitty choices for the HoF. My choice for the worst choice is Roger Bresnahan..a career 270 or so hitter, and IIRC, only had about 1200 career hits. Phil Rizzuto gets and honorable (dishonorable?) mention.


matt3916

You are SUCH a tease!  OK, I'll bite (again).  Who is "the greatest fielder at ANY position in history"?  Ashburn maybe or Mays?

DennisS

Quote from: matt3916 on August 12, 2017, 04:52:55 PM
You are SUCH a tease!  OK, I'll bite (again).  Who is "the greatest fielder at ANY position in history"?  Ashburn maybe or Mays?

Ashburn is an excellent choice, so is Mays. The best fielder...drum roll, please, is Mazeroski. It would take awhile to make the case, and Ozzie is absolutely in the mix as well.

MetalDog

Quote from: DennisS on August 12, 2017, 09:20:02 PM
Quote from: matt3916 on August 12, 2017, 04:52:55 PM
You are SUCH a tease!  OK, I'll bite (again).  Who is "the greatest fielder at ANY position in history"?  Ashburn maybe or Mays?

Ashburn is an excellent choice, so is Mays. The best fielder...drum roll, please, is Mazeroski. It would take awhile to make the case, and Ozzie is absolutely in the mix as well.

I have found my people!  <:-) <:-) <:-)  I do so love baseball.
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob

BanzaiCat

Quote from: MetalDog on August 14, 2017, 09:02:50 PM
I have found my people!  <:-) <:-) <:-)  I do so love baseball watching paint dry.

FTFY  O:-)

mirth

Quote from: MetalDog on August 14, 2017, 09:02:50 PM
I have found my people!  <:-) <:-) <:-)  I do so love baseball.

Yet you were remarkably quiet about the Sox/Yankees series this past weekend...
"45 minutes of pooping Tribbles being juggled by a drunken Horta would be better than Season 1 of TNG." - SirAndrewD

"you don't look at the mantelpiece when you're poking the fire" - Bawb

"Can't 'un' until you 'pre', son." - Gus

MetalDog

Came back to win Fri.  Got squashed Sat.  And our Closer blew the lead Sun.  But what do you care?  You hate baseball and the Red Sox.
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob