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13-14 August

The election map is looking increasingly bad, with the Republicans. Now projected to have only 50 seats, with three toss-ups.  With only 2 CPs, I am limited to running an ad in North Dakota and targeting Arizona.


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12 August

The DNC roles out two more attack advertisements, one on health care and one on tax rates.  My spreadsheet shows that while both issues favor the DNC in the battleground states, tax rates favors them less.  Accordingly, I put all my spin points on this issue.



The polling map shows North Dakota, Missouri and West Virginia as toss ups, with Indiana going for the Democratic party



The DNC appears to be making ad buys in Ohio, Indian, Montana, North Dakota and Arizona (see the last column on the image below).  With only two points available this turn, I strengthen the party organization in West Virginia.  Next turn, I will begin making more advertisements in some of the battleground states.


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11 August
I'm a little behind on posting.  I will try to get back on track over then next couple of days. 

Today's news is that the DNC releases an attack ad. However, it appears that it is a fairly weak ad, and leaves an opening for the RNC to successfully spin it. 


The election map shows too many toss up states.  However, I have neglected building the ad campaign needed to effectively compete. 



I create another surrogate, VPOTUS Pence, for his barnstorming ability.  I think he might be better in areas where anti-Trump sentiment is high.  I also s begin creating advertisements targeting voters in the North Dakota on both Trump and Leadership, which have high positives for the Republicans. I also send foot soldiers to West Virginia, to reinforce the Republican effort against the incumbent Democratic senator.

Real World Polling

Earlier this summer, Real World RCP has Cramer ahead in North Dakota by 0.5% (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_cramer_vs_heitkamp-6485.html ).  In 2016, Trump won the state by 36 points, (https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/23/politics/enten-poll-of-the-week-north-dakota-democrat-senate/index.html ).  As National Review points out,  Heikamp has voted against most of the Trump agenda, so she will likely find significant headwinds battling against this level of support, despite the fack she has a 2:1 funding advantage over her opponent. (https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/08/heidi-heitkamp-voting-record-own-worst-enemy/)  Based on this, her ability to hold onto this seat is far from certain. In July, Roll Call moved this seat to “Leans Republican,” and I suspect that is probably understating the case. (https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/ratings-change-two-top-senate-races-shift-out-of-toss-up)
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Digital Gaming AARs / Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Last post by JasonPratt on August 15, 2018, 11:34:57 AM »
Well, he is the President, he may have had something yuge to deal with.  :D
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Digital Gaming AARs / Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Last post by Tripoli on August 14, 2018, 06:02:54 PM »
10 August

Well, well, well.  Polling is improving in Arizona, with a +3 gain for the Republican candidate there.  Likewise, polling shows significant gains in Tennessee, Indiana, and North Dakota. Some of this may be because of my polling coming on-lie (see text underneath the map below).   Unfortunately, I apparently did not get POTUS to the airplane to Florida, so he wasted his barn storming abilities in New York.  Apparently, I need to read the manual on moving my surrogates  ??? 



I start to make some ads targeted on Florida and Indiana.  Additionally, the Minnesota ad appears to be very powerful, so I begin running it in Minnesota, although the D +15 polling makes it unlikely that it will swing the state.  However, it might force the DNC to put more resources to MN.  These actions use up my command points, finishing the turn.

 
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Digital Gaming AARs / Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Last post by Tripoli on August 12, 2018, 08:13:20 PM »
9 August
The national picture appears to be relatively unchanged.  Missouri are now R +2.  Ohio, North Dakota, and Tennesee are D+2, while West Virginia is now a toss up.



Looking at the DNC's activities, They have targeted Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan and Minnesota (3rd column in the table below).  They are also  putting foot soldiers into Montana, Tennessee, Minnesota and Arizona (See the sixth column on the table below).
 


To respond to this, I will have Trump do some barnstorming in Florida, as he has a net positive effect there.  I also begin targeting and putting foot soldiers and polling into Indiana as a response to the DNC efforts there.  Finally, I target North Dakota.
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Tabletop AARs / Re: Skies Above the Reich 1942-? AAR
« Last post by ComradeP on August 11, 2018, 09:16:37 AM »
So, to continue the AAR I'll give a short explanation of how combat works and then I'll "introduce" the Experten to give them some background for the sake of the narrative.

Note: I use small plastic bags to hold the markers, so I'll refer to taking markers out of the bag instead of a cup or the like.

Combat is choice-marker-card-dice based. Rolls are made with a D10 die.

The first step in combat in SAtR is moving aircraft into an Approach box from one of the altitude boxes. A wave of up to 6 fighters can attack at the same time from all of the Approach boxes combined, any other fighters will attack in the next wave(s).

You determine the mode they'll be in, Determined or Evasive. Determined is more lethal to bombers and your aircraft (higher chance of getting Hit or inflicting Damage), Evasive less lethal to both. Evasive aircraft spend an extra turn returning to an altitude box.

You also decide what kind of Manoeuvre a fighter will make, which in terms determines where it goes and if it uses the High or Low (Evasive) return box. You can climb, climb/roll, dive or dive/roll.

After that, you move them into a bomber's space on the side you're attacking the bomber from.

If there are 2 or more aircraft in a space, you take a collision marker out of the bag and apply the effects, if any. Most collision marker effects tend to apply only to fighters in Determined mode.

You then draw a card for the relevant approach angle (Nose, Oblique or Tail) and check the result on the card for the fighter's mode, altitude and the space's lethality value. For example: Nose - Determined - High - 0 result might be Damage.

Hits to your aircraft are applied by taking a Hit marker out of the bag, which indicates where the fighter was Hit and a number. Damage can be shrugged off in two ways: by a roll equal or higher than the number on the marker or by using the Luck Experte skill or an advantage that cancels a Hit, such as the Rotte advantage for attacking with two Determined fighters in the same space. Advantages can be applied once per bomber element, regardless of how many times they're earned. For example: earning the Rotte advantage 3 times won't allow you to cancel 3 Hits, but just 1.

If a Hit is applied, the fighter won't be able to move back to the Formation map and moves into the Fate box where the fate of the pilot is resolved through rolls after the battle.

If the bomber is Damaged, you take one or more Damage marker(s) out of the bag. Damage markers have an indication of the part of the bomber that was hit on the front, usually with a Catastrophic Effect number and effect.

A Catastrophic Effect, when triggered, causes the bomber to either become Fallen or Destroyed, depending on the marker. You roll a D10 to determine whether or not it triggers. Using the Advanced rules, if it becomes Fallen, the bomber is moved to the Turn track where you need to intercept it by moving a fighter from the Formation map to the Turn track before you can engage the bomber on the Pursuit map. The last pilot to damage it on the Formation map earns 1 EP. If the bomber is Destroyed, it is simply removed from play, you earn 1 or 2 VP's depending on mission type and the last pilot to hit it earns 2 EP. You then place a Fallen or Destroyed marker on the map on top of the printed B-17 that is no longer in the element.

If any of these effects occur from pre-battle damage, your pilots don't earn EP or VP and the B-17 is assumed not to have entered the formation map.

If no Catastrophic Effect applies, you flip the Damage marker. On the rear, it has a letter and a number. The letter is used for determining where the marker is placed on the Pursuit map, the number determines the severity of the hit and may cause the bomber to be gone before your pilots can get to it on the Pursuit map if the number is equal to or higher than the relevant number for the part of the plane that was hit. The pilot earns no EP for watching a bomber go down before the first pass on the Pursuit map, but you do earn 1 or 2 VP. 10 accumulated damage, regardless of type, on the Formation map destroys a bomber without the need to chase it to the Pursuit map. This doesn't apply to the Pursuit map, though it's rare that a bomber will still be in the air with 10 accumulated damage.

After the attack, you draw a Continuing Fire card and Break Away. The Continuing Fire card has two rows for mode and Lethality, where you check the effect and apply it. There is also an Event description which might call for additional markers to enter play, inflict a Tactical Point penalty, increases Lethality for a certain Manoeuvre or which might cancel Continuing Fire for a certain Manoeuvre and/or force you to Break Away to a certain attack vector. When diving, your aircraft might also get Bounced by Escorts in the Below Trailing station, forcing you into aerial combat.

Lethality can be decreased if a bomber is Fallen or Destroyed. Depending on the attack card, your fighter might also have moved one or more space after attacking, and you apply the relevant Lethality level. I prefer to plan a Manoeuvre to the edge of the map as the Lethality level tends to be lower there. You don't want to end up in the middle of an element.

Experten can learn the Break Anywhere skill which allows them to ignore Continuing Fire and move their fighter to a return box of their choice. Me 262's in Evasive mode always Break Anywhere. They're way too fast for anyone to catch aside from when they're making their attack pass and basically zoom and boom their way through the bomber stream.
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Digital Gaming AARs / Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Last post by Tripoli on August 09, 2018, 07:21:23 AM »
8 August

The news cycle continues to report a Republican lead in the national senate picture.  Polling now shows a slight (+1 R) lead in Missouri.


While the picture is improving for the RNC, a dive into the polls shows the DNC has some momentum in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Minnesota.  (denoted by the "+2" in the 4th column below)


Looking at Florida, it looks like the RNC is already doing what can be done there.  An advertisement stressing Trump support is being cut, polling is being done, and  the RNC organization is being built up. The result of this is that the Republican  share of the vote appears to slowly outstripping the Democrat vote by +0.1 to -0.3 this turn.  The DNC is targeting Florida, so I'll have to continue to do a dive into the polling to see what issues I can exploit. 


I expand polling in Ohio, Tennessee, Montana and North Dakota.  Tomorrow, the new advertisements should come out, and this latest round of polling will be used to determine where to air them.
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Digital Gaming AARs / Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Last post by Tripoli on August 09, 2018, 06:39:42 AM »
7 August

The news cycles is still reporting a Republican lead in the Senate campaign.


A look at the current polling shows a map that is essentially unchanged from yesterday:



With not much new happening in the polling world, I begin building the RNC organization in Arizona to help McSally in her race (denoted by the  '-->' arrow on the 5th column of the table below).  I also  increase polling in both Arizona and West Virginia (note: this is denoted by the '-->' arrow on the second column of the table below.  This will give me a more accurate poll than the national polls I'm currently using.  In turn, this will help guide me on where I want to put additional resources.  In Arizona, McSally looks vulnerable despite the recent mis-step by the Democrat party on running on the immigration issue, so I need to get a better understanding of how much to commit to her campaign.  Next turn, I may do some polling on immigration to see if running an advertisement there will improve McSally's run.   Similarly, I do additional polling in West Virginia.  There, the Republican candidate is comfortably ahead of the Democratic incumbent, so I'm not sure how much I want to pile on in that race, when potentially I could put the resources to Ohio or other light blue states.


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Digital Gaming AARs / Re: US 2018 Congressional Election-A Congress Infinity AAR
« Last post by Tripoli on August 07, 2018, 07:51:11 PM »
6 August 2018

the game day starts off with a good news story that the Republicans are polling well, and may get a Senate majority.



 This gives the RNC an opportunity to spin the story.  And the RNC has no better guy for that job than my newly activated surrogate, POTUS himself, Donald Trump.  Release the Trumpster!

After giving POTUS our half of the two-man launch code for his Twitter feed, I take stock of the latest polling.  While good, it isn't great.





It looks like we've lost ground in Minnesota-2, Florida and Missouri.  OF note, the DNC is running ads against Republican McSally in Arizona on the Russian interference issue.  I'm surprised they think that will work in Arizona, as the game shows a Republican advantage in Arizona on that issue.  Possibly that is the reaons the state went from a D+5 to a to a toss up this turn?   

WIth only 2 CPs left, I spend them on targeting West Virginia and close out the turn. (states that are targeted are denoted by the column with the eyeball in the last image above).

Real World Polling
The Arizona race is the run for retiring Senator Jeff Flake.  According to RCP, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema as a D-4 to D+7 advantage here, possibly enhanced by the  entrance of former Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio into the race and potentially splitting  the populist vote. 
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