The 2014 Running Football Thread (College & Pro)

Started by bayonetbrant, February 07, 2014, 10:21:37 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

OJsDad

No need to play anymore games, it's already been figured out;

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/playoff-simulation-alabama-vs-oregon-for-national-title/ar-BBgt2yj

Quote
PredictionMachine.com's Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoffs look like through 50,000 simulations of the four-team playoff. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.

Who's in? The question has been answered and the four-team playoff is set.

Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State (just like we predicted in August) will participate in the first ever College Football Playoff.

Which team is the most likely champion and what are the odds each team wins the title?

How this works

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to and win the championship of the College Football Playoff.

The Most Likely Champion Is...

Alabama has been No. 1 in our Power Rankings for eight consecutive weeks. The Crimson Tide is the only team in the country ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The SEC champions are the No. 1 seed for a reason and would be favored on a neutral field against Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State and every other team in the country by at least a field goal.

After 50,000 simulations, the most likely national champion is Alabama. Alabama wins 44.8% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship Game, Alabama defeats Oregon 58.4% of the time by an average score of 34-30.

The biggest impact of the selection committee's ranking is not the fact that TCU was left out of the Playoff, but rather that Florida State moved from the fourth to the third seed.

The Seminoles have won three consecutive ACC titles, they have a winning streak of 29 consecutive games and are defending national champions. However, Florida State ranks just 14th overall in our Power Rankings. There are 13 teams in the country that would be favored against Florida State on a neutral field.

Like in March Madness, seed and path to the championship are critical to each team's projected playoff probabilities. Had Florida State remained the fourth seed, Alabama's odds to win the title improve.

Alabama, in a bracket in which it played Florida State in the semifinal instead of Ohio State, would become more than 50% likely to win its fourth title in five years. Oregon, in this hypothetical scenario, would see its championship odds drop to less than 30% with a tougher opening-round matchup against Ohio State.

Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket:

Semifinals

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State | Alabama wins 69.9% of the time and by an average score of 30-21.

No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State | Oregon wins 72.6% of the time and by an average score of 41-28.

National Championship

No 1. Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon | Alabama wins 58.4% of the time and by an average score of 34-30.

The likelihoods for each team to win the championship are 44.8% for Alabama, 33.9% for Oregon, 14.7% for Ohio State and 6.6% for Florida State.
'Here at NASA we all pee the same color.'  Al Harrison from the movie Hidden Figures.

Bison

Quote from: OJsDad on December 07, 2014, 06:44:07 PM
Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 06:38:49 PM
The Big 12 needs to go to 12 teams now.  I don't think they have any choice, but who do they pick up and not get hit with "weak" teams in the conference.

I think their best two options are Cincinnati and Boise State.  Both would bring respectable teams to the Big 12. I don't think they will be able to entice any Big 10, SEC, ACC or PAC 12 teams.  Especially if Texas is still giving the rest of the conference the finger.

They aren't bad teams but still not going to get the "quality" opponent rating that they lost when Nebraska, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Colorado jumped conferences. 

OJsDad

Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 07:32:26 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on December 07, 2014, 06:44:07 PM
Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 06:38:49 PM
The Big 12 needs to go to 12 teams now.  I don't think they have any choice, but who do they pick up and not get hit with "weak" teams in the conference.

I think their best two options are Cincinnati and Boise State.  Both would bring respectable teams to the Big 12. I don't think they will be able to entice any Big 10, SEC, ACC or PAC 12 teams.  Especially if Texas is still giving the rest of the conference the finger.

They aren't bad teams but still not going to get the "quality" opponent rating that they lost when Nebraska, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Colorado jumped conferences.

I agree, I just think those are their best two options at this time. 
'Here at NASA we all pee the same color.'  Al Harrison from the movie Hidden Figures.

bayonetbrant

Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 06:38:49 PMThe Big 12 needs to go to 12 teams now.  I don't think they have any choice, but who do they pick up and not get hit with "weak" teams in the conference.

You get Cincinnati and Memphis, and if you have to stretch it, add La Tech.

The first 2 get you on TV in Ohio and Tennessee, respectively, to get you in competition for recruits from other conferences, plus both make your basketball conference a serious powerhouse.
LT only if you feel the need to fight for Louisiana recruits.

They should have grabbed Louisville when they grabbed West Virginia; they were too short-sighted to do it.

Before you *ever* touch Boise St, you go get BYU first.
The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

bayonetbrant

Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 07:32:26 PMThey aren't bad teams but still not going to get the "quality" opponent rating that they lost when Nebraska, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Colorado jumped conferences. 

it was A&M, not T-Tech. :)
The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

OJsDad

Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 07, 2014, 07:40:17 PM
Before you *ever* touch Boise St, you go get BYU first.

I agree.  I'm just not sure if BYU is interested in joining a conference or if they want to emulate ND.
'Here at NASA we all pee the same color.'  Al Harrison from the movie Hidden Figures.

Arctic Blast

Quote from: Martok on December 07, 2014, 04:23:09 PM
Ha!  Well that was an unexpected ending.  I actually thought the Jets were going to pull it off there


That's where you made your mistake.


bayonetbrant

Tolling level: Expert

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2292491-rams-jeff-fisher-sends-players-traded-for-robert-griffin-iii-out-for-coin-toss


Quote from: TwitterFisher w/a little sense of humor. He sent Jenkins, Brockers, Stacy, Bailey, Robinson, Ogletree out for pregame coin toss at FedEx.
Quote from: TwitterWhat's the meaning of all that? All six were acquired as result of the RGIII trade.

The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers

Marty Ward

Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 04:21:59 PM
I think the NCAA basketball tourney really proves the greatness that is American college sports.  On any given day...

Picking the 2 best or having a knockout tournament are just two different ways of choosing a champion. It doesn't really matter how you do it, neither way guarantees the BEST team plays for it. Personally I think even if the #8 beats the #1 they aren't a better team.
If it looks like chicken, tastes like chicken, and feels like chicken but Chuck Norris says its beef, then it's beef.

If women had apostrophes instead of periods they would be even more possessive!

Steelgrave

Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 08, 2014, 11:51:09 AM
Tolling level: Expert

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2292491-rams-jeff-fisher-sends-players-traded-for-robert-griffin-iii-out-for-coin-toss


Quote from: TwitterFisher w/a little sense of humor. He sent Jenkins, Brockers, Stacy, Bailey, Robinson, Ogletree out for pregame coin toss at FedEx.
Quote from: TwitterWhat's the meaning of all that? All six were acquired as result of the RGIII trade.

This one made me LMAO! Maybe Fisher will be kind and hire Gruden as an assistant after the season.


Martok

Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 08, 2014, 11:51:09 AM
Tolling level: Expert

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2292491-rams-jeff-fisher-sends-players-traded-for-robert-griffin-iii-out-for-coin-toss


Quote from: TwitterFisher w/a little sense of humor. He sent Jenkins, Brockers, Stacy, Bailey, Robinson, Ogletree out for pregame coin toss at FedEx.
Quote from: TwitterWhat's the meaning of all that? All six were acquired as result of the RGIII trade.
Ha!  Genius. 

"Like we need an excuse to drink to anything..." - Banzai_Cat
"I like to think of it not as an excuse but more like Pavlovian Response." - Sir Slash

"At our ages, they all look like jailbait." - mirth

"If we had lines here that would have crossed all of them. For the 1,077,986th time." - Gusington

"Government is so expensive that it should at least be entertaining." - airboy

"As long as there's bacon, everything will be all right." - Toonces

Bison

Quote from: Marty Ward on December 08, 2014, 12:36:17 PM
Quote from: Bison on December 07, 2014, 04:21:59 PM
I think the NCAA basketball tourney really proves the greatness that is American college sports.  On any given day...

Picking the 2 best or having a knockout tournament are just two different ways of choosing a champion. It doesn't really matter how you do it, neither way guarantees the BEST team plays for it. Personally I think even if the #8 beats the #1 they aren't a better team.

The purpose of the tournament is for entertainment and to determine the best team.  So if the #8 team beats the #1 and they hadn't played previously, then the #8 team is the better team.  I mostly get annoyed that all college football boils down to 5 conferences and in reality only about 10 teams out of all of the FBS that are even considered "worthy".  Boise State fielded some of the best teams in the early 2000s but were never give credit even when they beat the power conference preferred teams.  Same with TCU.  I want to see the FBS go to a FCS playoff system.  Higher ranked team gets the home game and a neutral Championship game site.

OJsDad

Quote from: Bison on December 09, 2014, 08:18:41 PM
I want to see the FBS go to a FCS playoff system.  Higher ranked team gets the home game and a neutral Championship game site.

I agree, but it will never happen.  The first time a southern team had to go to Boise or Madison in December and got their butts handed to them, that would be the end of it. 
'Here at NASA we all pee the same color.'  Al Harrison from the movie Hidden Figures.

MetalDog

So, if weather is so detrimental for Southern teams going north, what's the Northern teams excuses for getting their ass handed to them when they come south?
And the One Song to Rule Them All is Gimme Shelter - Rolling Stones


"If its a Balrog, I don't think you get an option to not consent......." - bob

bayonetbrant

The key to surviving this site is to not say something which ends up as someone's tag line - Steelgrave

"their citizens (all of them counted as such) glorified their mythology of 'rights'...and lost track of their duties. No nation, so constituted, can endure." Robert Heinlein, Starship Troopers