The central government of Spain is using force to prevent a vote on Catalonian Independence. Some of this strife dates back to the Spanish Civil War.
Perhaps unfortunately, we are going to Barcelona in less than three weeks. I really hope it has settled down by then.
Low turnout, high result
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41463719
I don't really understand it and a Catalonian friend didn't really illuminate it for me either. I understand everyone wants to feel unique and special but there's good reasons such as economy and security they should stay together.
Anyway, enjoy Barcelona. It's a beautiful city with lots of food and culture and beaches if that's your thing!
Where is the EU now?
Quote from: Gusington on October 02, 2017, 08:36:13 AM
Where is the EU now?
Probably hiding and pretending there's no controversy.
Sounds legit.
Be safe Airboy.
Quote from: joram on October 02, 2017, 07:27:59 AM
I don't really understand it and a Catalonian friend didn't really illuminate it for me either. I understand everyone wants to feel unique and special but there's good reasons such as economy and security they should stay together.
Anyway, enjoy Barcelona. It's a beautiful city with lots of food and culture and beaches if that's your thing!
I didn't much until there was a brief breakdown in the news today - I'm not going to quote percentages because I can't remember but Catalonia produces a big ass chunk of Spain's wealth and I think busy Catalonians are pissed off with lazy unproductive workers in Madrid who are watching Catalonia earn it and then enjoying the rewards without pulling their weight and they've had enough
Sounds like California!
The Wife spent a semester in Barcelona and said that city, as well as a big chunk of Catalonia, is exactly like Geek describes above. She then compared the relationship to New York City and the rest of New York State...a financial powerhouse that is constantly being tapped for revenue by the bigger government and at the same time also sucks up a vast amount of resources too. I guess it work both ways.
The Spanish National Police look very 'Brown-Shirt-ish' in their actions. I saw the local police confronting them to protect local citizens. This could get real ugly, real fast I'm thinking. And hoping not.
The Catalonian Fire Service also tried to stop the Spanish National Police from busting heads at polling places. Catalonia also has its own police, which stood by and would not act against their own. Lot of pictures of Catalonians hugging and thanking them.
Is Spain going to fall apart? A civil war perhaps? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/catalonia-declare-independence-within-days-after-spanish-king-s-tv-n807346
Even if the vote was 90% in favor of secession and even if generally reflective of the overall populace, I would have to imagine that something so drastic would require each and every citizen to participate to be valid.
Quote from: joram on October 04, 2017, 07:43:42 AM
Is Spain going to fall apart? A civil war perhaps? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/catalonia-declare-independence-within-days-after-spanish-king-s-tv-n807346
Even if the vote was 90% in favor of secession and even if generally reflective of the overall populace, I would have to imagine that something so drastic would require each and every citizen to participate to be valid.
I think it would depend on whether or not the citizens are OK with representatives making decisions for them, or enforce a requirement of direct democracy.
Moreover, if you want a legit election (which the Spanish authorities clearly
don't then you have to get rid of the national police voter suppression/intimidation and surreptitious sneaking-ballot-boxes-out-the-back-door intrigue to ensure the integrity of any referendum. Right now, there's now externally-auditable chain of custody for many of those ballot boxes, and when the outcome is suspiciously lopsided in favor of the outcome sought by those holding the referendum, that chain of custody becomes even more critical.
Holy crap. Does Catalonia have enough power over it's own infrastructure to make this a reality? I am going to guess that many countries will not recognize Catalonia for fear of their own 'restive' provinces following suit.
Not sure what the Spanish government was thinking with a harsh crack down. That was probably the most unwise move they could have made. If the vote was truly illegal then they should have just ignored it and brushed it aside. Now they have added a lot of fuel to the fire.
Quote from: Gusington on October 04, 2017, 08:21:29 AM
Not sure what the Spanish government was thinking with a harsh crack down. That was probably the most unwise move they could have made. If the vote was truly illegal then they should have just ignored it and brushed it aside. Now they have added a lot of fuel to the fire.
Really? Power is a very powerful motivator to do whatever you can to keep a hold of it.
Governments have even been known to lie, spread rumours and even scare monger to get what they want. I would give details of the Scottish Referendum, but this is about Catalonia.
By all accounts Catalonia appears to be pretty well off in terms of wealth - or at least generating it and as UCG mentioned, word is that money gets soaked up by the Government passing it across other regions of Spain and the Catalonian's are a bit peeved about it to say the least.
Self determination. Some Scots, but not enough by all accounts, wanted it, 52% of Brits wanted it from the EU (though 62% of Scots didn't) and apparently a very high number of Catalonians wanted it.
The trouble with the Catalonian vote is that it wasn't fair. As it was banned and deemed illegal, people who were for staying within the confines of the Spanish Government didn't go and vote. Chances are it wouldn't have made a difference. But the point is until there's a legally accepted and verified ballot this one doesn't really have any legitimacy to stand as an actually legal result imo.
As for how the King of Spain is reacting - I'm pretty sure the last King of England, Scotland and Wales was beheaded for treating his subjects as if they had no rights (Charles I disbanding Parliament).
Quote from: Gusington on October 04, 2017, 08:21:29 AM
Holy crap. Does Catalonia have enough power over it's own infrastructure to make this a reality? I am going to guess that many countries will not recognize Catalonia for fear of their own 'restive' provinces following suit.
If i'm not mistaken I think Catalonia is (one of) the wealthiest region of Spain so in theory they could do it. This is one of the reasons they want out : they contribute a lot more than they get out of it.
It is never the poor regions who want to go their own way.
If one person shouldn't mention an illegal or undemocratic vote it is the king (and we also have one like that). He has his 'job' because he was born.
A lot of people in Belgium are following this story closely because over here there is also a part that wants Flanders to separate from Wallonia.
In Spain the Basque region may be next up.
The vote got 90% but in reality it is more of a 50/50 thing (although the latest events might have changed that in favor of separation). Because those who don't want to separate didn't go to vote as they considered the whole process illegal (or were scared away by the police presence at the voting booth).
Spain is trying to make Catalonia into Can't-alonia. Or, Can't-be-alone-ia. Either way the trouble with 'Velvet Revolutions' is if the central Govt. ignores them or just laughs it all off, what power can they make for themselves? As long as the Catalons can't or don't kick the Central Govt. out, they should treat it as a local thing and lay-off the riot police and armored cars. If it turns violent, then bring-out the troops.
I wonder who's really behind all this? Is it all just history and local or is there a larger player behind the scenes? A few years back this would be nonsense but today you just never know.
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 04, 2017, 09:41:17 AM
I wonder who's really behind all this? Is it all just history and local or is there a larger player behind the scenes? A few years back this would be nonsense but today you just never know.
they've been pretty restive for a long time, but because the Basques were the ones with the car bombs, no one paid much attention to the Catalans.
Quote from: Pete Dero on October 04, 2017, 09:26:51 AM
Quote from: Gusington on October 04, 2017, 08:21:29 AM
Holy crap. Does Catalonia have enough power over it's own infrastructure to make this a reality? I am going to guess that many countries will not recognize Catalonia for fear of their own 'restive' provinces following suit.
...
It is never the poor regions who want to go their own way.
...
Apart from the powers that be in Scotland :buck2:
Well one thing that might disincentivize them would be if the EU played hardball. Even if recognized as a new nation by individual member states, the EU has an incentive to discourage any favorable participation in the Eurozone similar to how they are viewing Brexit.
Even if they are a wealthy region of Spain, they may think again if it's worth it when all their prices go up because of tariffs.
Quote from: joram on October 05, 2017, 04:03:40 PM
Well one thing that might disincentivize them would be if the EU played hardball. Even if recognized as a new nation by individual member states, the EU has an incentive to discourage any favorable participation in the Eurozone similar to how they are viewing Brexit.
Even if they are a wealthy region of Spain, they may think again if it's worth it when all their prices go up because of tariffs.
Unlikely. That didn't stop the UK.
The ordinary person doesn't really think or necessarily care about such things because, until it happens, it's just scary stories to stop you exercising your right to determine how your country goes forward.
Too true of course but UK has a lot more bargaining power than Catalonia so one would assume the impact would be at least as bad?
I saw a headline earlier but can't find the link now...something about Madrid refusing to let Catalonia's Parliament meet to vote on independence?
^Yeah I saw that at Reuters and BBC. The Catalan opposition replied 'we'll see about that, jackwads' - however you say jackwad in Spanish. Or Catalan.
I wonder if that province has a military they can call on if they need to back things up. Or if cooler heads might not let it get that far. Sounds like Spain will be in an economic hole if they take off.
They have their own police force, the Mossos. Sounds like they are similar to gendarmes...combination police and paramilitary. They have been around, on and off, since 1721.
Any nation with 'Cat' in it's name has got to be expected to want to do it's own thing. If they try to leave Spain, just get some laser pointers and draw them right back in again. Problem solved. :uglystupid2:
Quote from: BanzaiCat on October 05, 2017, 08:26:10 PM
I wonder if that province has a military they can call on if they need to back things up. Or if cooler heads might not let it get that far. Sounds like Spain will be in an economic hole if they take off.
I wouldn't say Spain would be in an economic hole...however, Spain - like most countries - don't want their country to "break up", especially when said nation is a benefit to the coffers (financial state).
On top of that, they have the Basque separatists who would want independence too (as they have for quite some years). So these countries (I'm talking about the UK, Spain, even the EU currently because that's where it's recently been up for grabs) can't be seen to be allowing parts to break away and have that at a benefit of those parts because that could start a tumbling process.
Quote from: joram on October 05, 2017, 06:49:15 PM
Too true of course but UK has a lot more bargaining power than Catalonia so one would assume the impact would be at least as bad?
It may well do...but as I said, the general populace probably won't think about that. It might be an "oops" moment when they leave - but for alot of people that won't be in their minds when voting.
Quote from: Sir Slash on October 05, 2017, 10:53:12 PM
Any nation with 'Cat' in it's name has got to be expected to want to do it's own thing. If they try to leave Spain, just get some laser pointers and draw them right back in again. Problem solved. :uglystupid2:
lol :2funny:
Quote from: BanzaiCat on October 05, 2017, 07:11:11 PM
I saw a headline earlier but can't find the link now...something about Madrid refusing to let Catalonia's Parliament meet to vote on independence?
That is the case. Problem is, the more they clamp down, the more the local population will get the impression the Government doesn't give two pennies for them and, worse, doesn't respect their view and so turn more against them.
It's a very hard process to reverse and
cannot be done by force - certainly not in the long term. That will forever be in the annals of history for the region and people will be brought up being reminded about what "the Spanish Government done to the people when the local area wanted to discuss self determination".
You can do it with fear. You can do it with money. You cannot do it with force.
Quote from: JudgeDredd on October 06, 2017, 12:46:40 AMcan't be seen to be allowing parts to break away and have that at a benefit of those parts because that could start a tumbling process.
I'm pretty sure Yugoslavia set that precedent a while ago
'Balkanization' or 'domino theory' - you choose.
Quote from: joram on October 05, 2017, 04:03:40 PM
Well one thing that might disincentivize them would be if the EU played hardball. Even if recognized as a new nation by individual member states, the EU has an incentive to discourage any favorable participation in the Eurozone similar to how they are viewing Brexit.
Even if they are a wealthy region of Spain, they may think again if it's worth it when all their prices go up because of tariffs.
The EU has every reason to support Catalonia. For that support Catalonia is gong to have to give up a lot to Brussels. Spain will be a lot poorer, and they'll also have to give up a lot to be supported after they lost their richest province.
The EU stated that the whole thing is an internal Spanish matter.
Think they'd have anything to say to Scotland if another separation vote comes?
They would be better off talking to Flanders first. And I don't mean Homer's annoying neighbor.
Quite.
Every time I see this thread title, I think (and hum) to myself, "everybody was Barcelona fighhhh-tiiiiing"
Those Catalons were fast as lightning.
It was una mica frighting.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/08/world/europe/catalonia-independence-tractors.html
Today tractors, tomorrow...tanks?
Lot of mixed signals coming out today. Latest I have read is a hardline quote from the Spanish PM basically saying the Spanish government is hell bent on stopping Catalonian independence 'at all costs.'
oh, .... Spain has a trump as well?
the fuel of the independence thought is, beside the historic back traces, the wealth transfer generated in Catalonia and send to main Spain... now with the growing uncertainty of the situation, some mayor banks and other businesses moved already there headquarter (taxes) from Catalonia to other parts of the Spain.
the wealth generation drops in Catalonia and with all the other fallout of pre-independence turmoil get more and more costly and so the movement will fizzle in the population with the exception of a small group of hardliners.
Catalonia already has a lot of Free State traits so it was mostly about the money-drain and hurt feelings of proud Spaniards and Catalans.
I neither expect a shooting war , nor terror, no violence beside a few clashes at small protest marches when main Spain police arrest some ringleader, and only if Madrid sees it really has to shut down the Catalonia's local parliament until early elections according to some special laws in the Spanish constitution
My wife and I have to decide in 10 days if we are going or not.
Tough call. I wouldn't necessarily fear going as much as not being able to get back out quickly if need be.
My wife spent a semester in Barcelona about 25 years ago and recalls it as one of the best times in her life. It would be a shame if the current situation stopped you and your wife from going, airboy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-catalonia-proposes-to-suspend-independence-referendum-result-2017-10
I think that ship has sailed. Or maybe in this case, those bulls have already been run.
Well, they are having more riots. We fly out tomorrow.
Stay safe, airboy!
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/19/world/europe/catalonia-independence-referendum.html?_r=0
Good luck airboy.
enjoy your trip, airboy
i am sure all will be fine ....he, its Old Europe after all O0
This is not good
Catalans declare independence. Madrid's reaction is to impose direct rule.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41780116 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41780116)
Honestly cannot predict what will happen next...
QuoteEuropean Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said the EU "doesn't need any more cracks, more splits".
Well, maybe this needs to be a wake-up call to the EU, then.
Quote from: Gusington on October 27, 2017, 06:00:26 PM
Honestly cannot predict what will happen next...
It's a tough call.
I don't know, but if Madrid is gonna pursue the hard-ball line. The next logical step is to disband the Catalan parliament, send home the local police and then flood Barcelona with Spanish police.
Man I hope I'm wrong
Quote from: BanzaiCat on October 27, 2017, 06:11:09 PM
QuoteEuropean Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said the EU "doesn't need any more cracks, more splits".
Well, maybe this needs to be a wake-up call to the EU, then.
Juncker running his mouth just goes to show why an EU-army is a bad idea
I'm just curious- has there been any talk of surreptitious Russian social-media agitprop in all of this?
Quote from: Atilla60 on October 27, 2017, 06:36:58 PM
Quote from: BanzaiCat on October 27, 2017, 06:11:09 PM
QuoteEuropean Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker said the EU "doesn't need any more cracks, more splits".
Well, maybe this needs to be a wake-up call to the EU, then.
Juncker running his mouth just goes to show why an EU-army is a bad idea
I totally agree with you Atilla, but restate EU army to what it will really be - an EUSSR army if Merkel and Macaroon get their way to federalise Europe into a state of the
Soviet "European" people...
Check out Merkel's background - her Dad was the Red Pastor (similar in attitude to Jim Jones) and closely associated with the STASI. I suspect years of Marxist indoctrination has left its mark, and don't forget that Manuel Barroso a relatively recent President of the EU
Politburo Commission was an open Maoist, as well as a current non-exec chairman of Goldman Sachs International (Yes, give that one a bit of thought... >:D). There is a real danger that if federalisation is achieved in the EU that a new Soviet style state will emerge, which has the potential to strangle not just national patriots, but genuine democratic challenge to its legitimacy, particularly as the legislative institution that really matters is the unelected EU Commission, which can initiate law without any influence from the citizens of Europe. I know big business loves the EU, but they also do China (which remains a one party totalitarian state), and they did the Nazi's before WW2 as well. Business interests and political freedom are not the same, and conflating the two - as we are seeing with Brexit - is a very dangerous path to go down for the ordinary citizen, although it does play into the hands of the globalists who are amoral where it comes to profits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horst_Kasner
Good paper on Merkel from a writers collective based in Switzerland...
http://better-management.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Understanding-the-EU-Angela-Merkel’s-redgreen-past.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Manuel_Barroso
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_Workers%27_Communist_Party
http://www.eamonn.com/2013/12/26/mao-the-mass-murderer-and-his-supporters/
https://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/865
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU
Wake up call for the EU.... :DD
They are too invested to change, and do you really think they care about democracy? The legislative institutions of the EU are on a par with the old Soviet Union. That didn't work out well either. :uglystupid2:
I'm surprised Merkel won re-election. She seemed something of a twat and I thought most Germans thought the same thing, but apparently not.
^After Trump was elected it's anything goes.
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/10/settlers-catalan-declare-independence-free-ore-sheep/
Free ore and sheep.
That's a deal that's hard to bleat... err, I mean 'beat'. #:-)
Quote from: BanzaiCat on October 28, 2017, 05:09:19 PM
I'm surprised Merkel won re-election. She seemed something of a twat and I thought most Germans thought the same thing, but apparently not.
she was not reelected
(i dunno if some international media had -of course- bent it that way?)
her supporting CDU/CSU party got only 32.9% and had a dramatic loss of 8.6 % since 2013 ....the worst result since 1949!
SPD which was the junior member of her great coalition reached 20,5% and suffered a loss of 5.2 % ...they refuse to be junior partner again and prefer oppositional role or reelections
so now poor Merkel is forced to form a new German government with gluing together a coalition with the help of The Green party (9.2%) and the neoliberal (= market, taxes, biz) FDP party (10.2%) or live with a minority government, or more likely we will see new elections, something that all established old parties hate in fear of even more losses.
of course the goals of the Green in most topics are diametrical to the statements of the Neoliberals and even more to those of Bavarian CSU and the remaining right wing part of CDU... The talks, called "exploratory negotiations", will take months!
especially because there are elections in Bavaria in autumn 2018 and the CSU has to stand up against the new also conservatively AfD and so cant give in to the Greens when its about migration, so called 'refugees', crime fighting, Islam cuddling and climatepolitics killing the automobil-industry, you name it...
Most remarkable is that the new right-leaning AfD party made it third lagerst party into the Bundestag with 12.6 %,
even so they got constantly the full blown 'Trump treatment' of the mostly Merkel-thrall-like media and journalists.
and in addition had to suffer from internal wings fights and so some resigns from party-office.
and a constantly personal smear against their leading politicians by the media and social networks going apeshit all day on any remarks in talkshows or from second-line personal on small town rallies
(my emphasis)
Quote from: MikeGER on October 29, 2017, 03:33:18 AMthe new right-leaning AfD party
"leaning"?
That's like saying Jarhead kind of thinks guns are neat. >:D
I just got finished spending a week in Spain visiting 5 cities including Barcelona.
First, lots of Spanish flags flying from private apartments. You seldom, if ever, see this in Europe. My estimate is 5% of the private apartment balconies outside of Barcelona had Spanish flags.
Second, many of the ordinary Spaniards I talked to are furious with the Catalans.
Third, lots of people in Catalonia are mad and protesting.
Prediction - this will go on for a very long time. People running for political office outside of Catalan can win votes demogoging the issue. People in some Catalan districts can win votes demogoging the issue on the other side. This will not be an issue that goes quietly into the night.
But if people don't start bombing or shooting each other over it, it should never become as big of an issue as many in the world.
Still, remarkable to see so many national flags on private property in Europe on an ordinary day.
As a final point, we gave up our three extra days in Barcelona due to the rioting and uncertainty of the situation. We would have been in the air when the Spanish national government made their decision and had no idea how the people in Barcelona would react. We were able to get our flight rescheduled at the last minute at a not inconsiderable cost.
Glad to hear you all made it out safely Airboy. One Spanish Civil War is enough for me.
comparisons (or not) to Ukraine
https://medium.com/dfrlab/shifting-stories-on-the-spanish-donbas-9af93eed7ba9
Quote from: airboy on November 04, 2017, 05:04:03 PM
I just got finished spending a week in Spain visiting 5 cities including Barcelona.
First, lots of Spanish flags flying from private apartments. You seldom, if ever, see this in Europe. My estimate is 5% of the private apartment balconies outside of Barcelona had Spanish flags.
Second, many of the ordinary Spaniards I talked to are furious with the Catalans.
Third, lots of people in Catalonia are mad and protesting.
Prediction - this will go on for a very long time. People running for political office outside of Catalan can win votes demogoging the issue. People in some Catalan districts can win votes demogoging the issue on the other side. This will not be an issue that goes quietly into the night.
But if people don't start bombing or shooting each other over it, it should never become as big of an issue as many in the world.
Still, remarkable to see so many national flags on private property in Europe on an ordinary day.
As a final point, we gave up our three extra days in Barcelona due to the rioting and uncertainty of the situation. We would have been in the air when the Spanish national government made their decision and had no idea how the people in Barcelona would react. We were able to get our flight rescheduled at the last minute at a not inconsiderable cost.
I'm sorry you feel that you have to gave up some days in Barcelona. While it's true that we have some protest here, it's not a chaos what we are living... some day you have a few thousands of people join with his spanish flags and another day you have others with the catalan flag 8) , everything without violence.
Hope one day we can have our referendum and, whatever the result is, everyboy respect it :)
We had to make a decision before leaving the USA. Deadline day happened when we would have been in the air. My wife has asthma, and if tear gas ended up being widely used it could have been serious for her. There was just too much uncertainty to risk our subsequent two week cruise to Spain.
We spent three days in Barcelona two years ago and had a very nice time.
https://paxsims.wordpress.com/2017/11/18/connections-nl-2017-aar/
https://www.ft.com/content/fa6dda6a-e6a0-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da
Quote
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Catalonia elected a new parliament on Thursday, in the latest test of strength between the region's powerful independence movement and political parties that support the union with Spain. Turnout reached a historic high, at more than 82 per cent, with the pro-independence parties securing another absolute majority in parliament. The other winner of the night was the anti-independence Ciudadanos party, which emerged as the biggest party in parliament.
Here are five takeaways from the Catalan election night.
The independence movement won. Now for the hard part
In parliamentary terms, the three parties that support an independent Catalan state emerged victorious once again. In political terms, however, they now face a monumental challenge.
Esquerra Republicana (ERC), Junts per Catalunya and the CUP together control 70 seats in the regional parliament. On paper, that is two more than they need to form a pro-independence government in Barcelona. In practice, that goal could prove hard to achieve. Recent weeks have show more clearly than ever the depth of divisions inside the separatist camp.
ERC, which performed worse than expected, has signalled repeatedly that it is ready to rethink its approach towards independence and adopt a more cautious, gradualist tactic. For other independence leaders, most notably the radical CUP, such a shift is unthinkable. Tensions may also emerge over who should lead the separatist bloc.
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Tobias Buck and Michael Stothard in Barcelona
YESTERDAY 27
Catalonia elected a new parliament on Thursday, in the latest test of strength between the region's powerful independence movement and political parties that support the union with Spain. Turnout reached a historic high, at more than 82 per cent, with the pro-independence parties securing another absolute majority in parliament. The other winner of the night was the anti-independence Ciudadanos party, which emerged as the biggest party in parliament.
Here are five takeaways from the Catalan election night.
The independence movement won. Now for the hard part
In parliamentary terms, the three parties that support an independent Catalan state emerged victorious once again. In political terms, however, they now face a monumental challenge.
Esquerra Republicana (ERC), Junts per Catalunya and the CUP together control 70 seats in the regional parliament. On paper, that is two more than they need to form a pro-independence government in Barcelona. In practice, that goal could prove hard to achieve. Recent weeks have show more clearly than ever the depth of divisions inside the separatist camp.
ERC, which performed worse than expected, has signalled repeatedly that it is ready to rethink its approach towards independence and adopt a more cautious, gradualist tactic. For other independence leaders, most notably the radical CUP, such a shift is unthinkable. Tensions may also emerge over who should lead the separatist bloc.
Esquerra Republicana candidate Marta Rovira gives a press conference following the election © AFP
Carles Puigdemont, the deposed head of the former government who is currently in Brussels, will probably have a strong claim.
Bridging the internal division will be difficult and the task is made more complicated still by simple arithmetic. Several of the deputies elected on the ERC and Junts per Catalunya lists, including the two leaders, are in jail or outside the country. Without them, the separatist majority evaporates. The parties could always replace them with candidates further down the list but that would mean sacrificing the movement's most experienced and popular figureheads — and losing a potent political symbol.
Even if that obstacle can be overcome, however, the pro-independence parties have some hard thinking to do. The past months have shown that their current strategy to win independence from Spain has little chance of success: Spain refuses to grant Catalonia a binding independence referendum and the world at large has shown full support for Madrid's handling of the crisis. It seems unlikely that Thursday's results will change that situation.
The much-vaunted Catalan road map to independence has guided the movement into a brick wall. And for the moment, there is no new map in sight.
The return of Puigdemont
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The former Catalan leader and his Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) party did better than both polls and analysts had predicted. He campaigned on the promise to restore self-rule to Catalonia after the Spanish government's decision to invoke article 155 of the constitution and suspend the region's autonomy. In one of the many peculiarities of the campaign, he did so without once setting foot on Catalan soil.
Mr Puigdemont fled to Belgium in October to evade Spanish justice. Several of his ministers stayed behind and are in jail awaiting trial. Though Mr Puigdemont was widely mocked in Spain for his decision to remain abroad, Catalans evidently saw things differently: for many of them, a vote for the exiled leader was a vote for their legitimate government — and against the heavy-handed crackdown by Madrid.
The question is what Mr Puigdemont does next. Despite the overall victory for the independence bloc, forming a new Catalan government will not be easy. His legal travails, too, are set to continue. Though Spain has withdrawn its international arrest warrant for the Catalan politician, any return to Spain would result in his detention.
In the meantime, however, he can take heart from the fact that his electoral list, written off as an also-ran only a few weeks ago, has emerged as the largest force inside the independence movement once again.
The 'silent majority' finds its voice
The independence movement lived through an anxious few hours late on Thursday. The unwelcome news arrived in the form of turnout figures showing a surge in voting in the so-called Red Belt around Barcelona.
The term describes the densely populated cities and suburbs that ring the Catalan capital and that are home to a large bloc of voters who arrived from other parts of Spain, as well as their descendants. Most speak Spanish not Catalan and identify with Spain rather than Catalonia.
Historically, Red Belt cities such as Hospitalet and Badalona have shown high abstention rates in Catalan regional polls, reflecting the lack of engagement with regional politics. Now, however, indifference seems to have given way to indignation. Often described as the "silent majority", these voters came out in force on Thursday to try to prevent a historic break between Spain and Catalonia, and to preserve a connection that they themselves embody.
In political terms, and despite the Red Belt moniker, the surge in voting in these communities appears to have benefited the Socialist party only slightly. Instead, much of the new vote went to Inés Arrimadas and the Ciudadanos party, which saw its share of the vote soar from 18 per cent to 25 per cent.
In the end, the shift was not large enough to secure a majority for the anti-independence bloc. For the separatist leadership, however, the fact that the silent majority is finding its voice is an ominous sign. Should this large but hitherto detached slice of the electorate remain engaged in regional politics, securing a majority for independence will become that much harder.
Arrimadas comes far but not far enough
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The leader of the anti-independence Ciudadanos party has been one of the stars of the 2017 election. After an energetic campaign that drew heavily on her image and personality, Ms Arrimadas has led the anti-independence party to a historic result.
On Thursday, Ciudadanos became the first non-nationalist party to top the polls in a Catalan regional election, taking 37 seats in the parliament. After years of separatist hegemony, she will preside over the biggest bloc in the legislature.
That achievement is all the more remarkable given her biography, which offers a stark contrast with the typical trajectory of Catalan politics. Ms Arrimadas was born in the Andalusian city of Jerez de la Frontera, about as far from Catalonia geographically and culturally as is possible inside Spain. She moved to Barcelona in her 20s and entered frontline politics only five years ago. She is a close ally of Albert Rivera, national leader of Ciudadanos, and Thursday's result is certain to further enhance her national profile.
Ms Arrimadas's triumph is, however, laced with bitterness. Despite her party's strong showing, she has virtually no chance of becoming Catalonia's next president. Even with the support of the conservative Popular party and the Socialists (which would not be easy to gain) she is still 10 seats short of a majority in parliament. Such is the political reality in Catalonia these days: leading the biggest party does not mean leading the biggest bloc.
A PP wipeout
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The result was not just a blow for the anti-independence forces in Spain but also terrible for the conservative Popular party of Mariano Rajoy, Spain's prime minister. The party came a dismal seventh place, taking just three seats in the 135-seat parliament.
For years Spain's ruling party has been steadily losing votes in the region to the liberal yet equally anti-independence Ciudadanos party. Founded just 11 years ago in Catalonia, Ciudadanos was set up in large part to combat the rise of separatism in the region. But it has grown rapidly in other parts of Spain, posing a real challenge to the PP and its once rock-solid conservative base.
Mr Rajoy himself is likely to see some silver linings to Thursday's result. The separatists may keep their grip on the Catalan parliament and government but Spain's prime minister can console himself with the thought that they failed once again to reach a majority of votes — the threshold the independence movement has so far always failed to cross in an election. Taken together, the share of the vote won by the three pro-independence parties in fact dropped slightly compared with 2015: expect to hear plenty about that from Mr Rajoy and the PP.
The problem, at least in Catalonia, is that anti-independence voters seem to view Ciudadanos as their new political home, not the PP. The conservative's poor showing on Thursday night will further undermine Mr Rajoy's legitimacy in the eyes of many Catalans. That does not bode well for any future negotiation aimed at resolving the bitter political conflict.
So what now?