UK Leaving the EU?

[Sir Slash]

Wait that wasn't Paul. It was... The Eagles? Damn, I feel old all of a sudden.

[Boggit]

Once the general man on the street vibe over there? Brexit or Remain?

Opinion seems very divided. There are so many polls going on at the moment, some place Leave ahead some Remain. It is anyone's guess at the moment.

If you watch this clip, substituting the English for the EU, you will see my sentiment is with the Scots...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIvRkjOd1f8

Whatever happens tomorrow, the UK will still be part of the EU on Friday. The legislation will remain as it is on the statute book, and if Leave wins then any future government will have to change it through the parliamentary process. I doubt very much that any contentious areas like employment law will be given up any more than it already is under the watch of the EU.

The referendum is not legally binding, although persuasive on government. Given that article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty gives up to 2 years to negotiate terms of exit (with the potential for extension) a lot can happen. "A week is a long time in politics" (Harold Wilson attrib.), so what does 2 years mean?

Given the huge amount of pressure being applied from the UK government on the electorate to remain, and the panic in Brussels at thought of the wider implications of Brexit, I would not be at all surprised if a Leave vote gets treated like the Irish referenda. The Irish electorate rejected the EU Constitution in 2008, and de facto accepted it in 2009 when they ratified the Lisbon Treaty under huge governmental pressure (and arguably for a few political scraps thrown them from the EU.) The problem is that despite referenda, the Modus Operandi of the EU is to ignore inconvenient results so long as the "correct" choice is made in the end. https://www.oxford-royale.co.uk/articles/european-union-undemocratic.html

And it's not often I agree with Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein on the deal that Ireland got for knuckling to the pressure on the electorate... http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0911/121701-eulisbon/

So what else might happen to the EU if Brexit is successful? You can expect that the electorates of more countries within the EU will want their own exit referendums, which will put huge pressure on the EU's biggest supporter Angela Merkel of Germany https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Rcc7xgD2dM as the biggest contributor to EU tribute to maintain the shaky economies of the EU empire.

In the interest of democracy, I hope the UK does Brexit. I have huge doubt that even if the referendum supports leave that the UK will leave the EU any time soon, for the reasons I've given. Of course, a failure to leave if the UK votes to leave will intensify feeling from a substantial part of the UK electorate against the EU even more.

A remain vote on the other hand will see the Federal project strengthened as the EU will take a remain vote as an endorsement, rather than the product of fear mongering relied on so much by the remain campaign. More and more the identity of the nation state will be further undermined until the Europa project achieves its aim of having mere amorphous regions within the EU super state, which can effectively ignore the inconvenience of democracy to its lawmakers. If people like Gorbachev who was fundamental to ending the Cold War, is warning about the post Lisbon EU, with his knowledge of the USSR, shouldn't we be taking note? http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/681928/lisbon-treaty-eu-superstate-referendum I also pay attention to the views of former Chancellor's of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson and Norman Lamont (who protected the UK from financial failure with the Eurozone by coming out of the ERM) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/02/the-eu-exists-only-to-become-a-superstate-britain-has-no-place-i/ (Lawson)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35702830 (Lamont interviewed by the BBC, he also makes some interesting points on the economic outlook on Brexit O0).

[Boggit]

Why has there been no publicity about alternatives to the Brexit, such as pressuring the EU to reform some of it's more egregious rules? No 'collective bargaining', as it were? This brinksmanship adventure reminds me an awful lot of America politics at it's worst. Which is to say, most of the time.

Because the EU doesn't do reform.

The evidence is that compromise is regarded as a tactical speed bump on the road to greater federalisation. Look for example at the 1992 Danish referendum re the Maastricht Treaty, the subsequent political scraps thrown at them to ratify the treaty. Then all the changes applied in subsequent treaties, which supercede the compromise the Danes thought they had obtained in 1992. The compromises were a speed bump. Just that.

On a more personal level, when I was studying for my Business Law degree, I spent two years studying EU law. One of the papers I had to write concerned the success of judicial review at the European Court of Political Decisions Justice (ECJ), Court of Auditors etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_review At the time of writing there had been hundreds of cases raised by member states, individuals and corporations. Mostly these concerned the EU Commission. At the time of writing, none save four - I repeat four - were ever successful. The most telling point is that the successful judicial reviews were raised by other institutions of the EU, and NOT by the vast majority of non EU institution judicial review applicants, irrespective of the grounds of the reasoning to have EU Commission decisions set aside. I read a lot of the cases, and mostly there were good grounds put forward by non EU entities.

The bottom line was to make the EU Commission de facto unassailable to judicial review by citizens, companies, or member states. That other EU institutions could do it, is another matter for the ECJ, but that is internal wrangling, and not a challenge to the supremacy of the Commission.

Like I say. The EU does not do reform. If it did, then maybe a lot of Brexit leave supporters would be less vocal that it is so anti-democratic.

[Boggit]

I suspect the EU is like the Hotel California. You can check-out any time like. But you can never leave. 

It is. :(

And it's grip WILL tighten if we remain. Don't take it from me, but from a past President of the Commission. And no, no one has ever voted for him... Note that the articles are now a few years old. This has been in the pipeline for a while now. What scares me is remain voters naively sleep walking like sheep into a federal super state where the inconvenient electorate can just be ignored. Check it out, they openly advocate this... :o

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10041817/Federal-Europe-will-be-a-reality-in-a-few-years-says-Jose-Manuel-Barroso.html
http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/europe/item/15359-federal-europe-coming-soon-eu-boss-says
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19366150
https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/news/merkel-preaches-federalism-to-meps-warns-britain-against-eu-exit/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-merkel-plan-ill-save-the-euro-with-a-federal-europe-6271544.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/fran-ois-hollande-calls-for-european-political-union-within-two-years-8619824.
-ml

[Boggit]

Just came across this, which is an interesting insight into the views of trade with Germany post Brexit from an official of German Industry's representatives ... it shows up Cameron and Osborne's lies for what they are.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/682561/david-cameron-eu-referendum-european-union-brexit-germany-boris-johnson-brussels

Whatever, the result the Brexit debate has created huge rifts in our nation, and the wild claims have undermined the credibility of our political class. The trust has gone.

[JudgeDredd]

...wearing a dress...

Careful Slash. Judge is a Braveheart at heart... jus go easy on the "dress" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJVFJ2kb62c ;)

Here are a couple of pointers...How to wind up the Picts Scots >:D ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvS6sThWuok

The truth about kilts... ;D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGNYuXMOk6U

lol

[JudgeDredd]

Why has there been no publicity about alternatives to the Brexit, such as pressuring the EU to reform some of it's more egregious rules? No 'collective bargaining', as it were? This brinksmanship adventure reminds me an awful lot of America politics at it's worst. Which is to say, most of the time.

As Boggit says - there's an agenda for political union and it's basically not up for debate.

If the threat of the UK leaving the EU - which is a big thing and I'm not overstating the UKs importance in the EU here - does not get reform, then I can't see how anything could.

[Boggit]

Why has there been no publicity about alternatives to the Brexit, such as pressuring the EU to reform some of it's more egregious rules? No 'collective bargaining', as it were? This brinksmanship adventure reminds me an awful lot of America politics at it's worst. Which is to say, most of the time.

As Boggit says - there's an agenda for political union and it's basically not up for debate.

If the threat of the UK leaving the EU - which is a big thing and I'm not overstating the UKs importance in the EU here - does not get reform, then I can't see how anything could.

+1 O0

I had an interesting chat at the supermarket with a Polish friend of mine who works there. Interestingly, he was pro remain until recently, but now thinks Brexit will be a good thing, especially if other EU nations demand their own referendum. More interesting still, without any prompting from me he was advocating the idea of a European confederacy of free nations cooperating in mutual interests, but without the EU dictating the relationship... something I've been in favour of for a while. He feels that if the UK vote Brexit, then a lot of other EU nations will want a say in their futures.

I think the EU federal project is the wrong model, but I can see lots of benefits of learning from our mistakes with the EU, and working cooperatively with European nations. He is concerned that Germany will try to prevent this, as the chief beneficiary of a federal EU, but it seems a lot of Europeans are interested in an alternate model of cooperation where their citizens have the potential for a say in the laws they live by.

[Boggit]

Why has there been no publicity about alternatives to the Brexit, such as pressuring the EU to reform some of it's more egregious rules? No 'collective bargaining', as it were? This brinksmanship adventure reminds me an awful lot of America politics at it's worst. Which is to say, most of the time.

As Boggit says - there's an agenda for political union and it's basically not up for debate.

If the threat of the UK leaving the EU - which is a big thing and I'm not overstating the UKs importance in the EU here - does not get reform, then I can't see how anything could.

From the horse's mouth (I guess the President of the EU Commission will have to do instead) -
http://www.euronews.com/2016/06/20/eu-post-brexit-would-not-change-its-nature-juncker-tells-euronews/

Interesting that in the face of Brexit there is no change in course. The lookouts have warned of the iceberg, then they say it's scraping the ship sides. So the captain orders full speed ahead.... will these people never learn?

[Greybriar]

Wait that wasn't Paul. It was... The Eagles? Damn, I feel old all of a sudden.

The Eagles.

Good times!

[Sir Slash]

All the while over here, our Presi-dent looks longingly at the EU and whispers to himself, "I wish we could be like that". All the "One-World Government" jokes used to be funny. Now they are down-right frightening. We're praying for you, Britain.

[Boggit]

All the while over here, our Presi-dent looks longingly at the EU and whispers to himself, "I wish we could be like that". All the "One-World Government" jokes used to be funny. Now they are down-right frightening. We're praying for you, Britain.

Thanks Sir Slash. O0

There are a few voting districts to go, but over 1.2million more people voted for Brexit over Remain. It is a public expression of the will of the people, but not actually legally binding. If Art 50 is triggered under the Lisbon Treaty we still might remain in the EU for up to and possibly beyond 2 years during negotiations. I'll believe it when it actually happens, as the EU bloc might yet try to get a second referendum to get the decision it wants, as they did with Ireland in their two referenda of 2008/9.

The markets are jumpy now because of uncertainty, but they are premature given the above.

I'm not surprised Obama likes the EU - it operates at the decision level (Commission) without election, and is essentially unassailable. It's not surprising that career politicians like it - appointments without the inconvenience of elections. A great day for liberty. We'll have our struggles in consequence, but I am optimistic for the future. Maybe 23rd June will be seen as our 4th July in the future, but there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge.

Funny how history repeats itself. For me it is our Yorktown moment, something perhaps an American will well understand? A sincere thank you for your support. O0 Liberrrrty! :)

[Anguille]

This is going to be funny....very funny....

Good luck guys....you'll need it 

[mirth]

Funny how history repeats itself. For me it is our Yorktown moment, something perhaps an American will well understand?

Most Americans wouldn't know what you meant.

[Boggit]

This is going to be funny....very funny....

Good luck guys....you'll need it 

No worries. O0

This has been far from an easy decision for us to arrive at. But my country has just had 17.6 million voters decide that leaving the EU is in the best interest of freedom, and prosperity for our country. I'll answer your disrespectful response to the exercise of our democracy in the same vein.

At least we have the courage to stand up to the unelected, unaccountable Commission in the desire to reclaim our sovereignty, and our democratic heritage. We've taken our decision and will take the opportunity to move on, as far as we can, in a positive way both with our neighbours in the EU, and with the rest of the world.

Sure we will have some big challenges in taking the big step from a "safe", but insular protectionist bloc into global society. It is a very big scary step for us, but we hope that as a free people with the risks come rewards too. Mark Twain said "Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear, not absence of fear." Have no doubt that for many of us there is plenty of fear of the unknown by taking this step into a 'Brave New World'. But we are doing it anyway in spite of the fear, in the belief we are doing the right thing by our country and our values. That is courage, and we do it with the hope that 'fortune favours the brave'.

In 1775, the USA also broke with precedent, and in the same spirit of taking great risk they had the courage to face the might of an autocratic British Empire. It was said at the time that it had not been done before and would not succeed. Perhaps, in irony, it is our time to learn from those rebels who had the courage to do the unthinkable?

You're welcome to remain in a puppet state of the EU if you really want to. But why don't you have the courage to test how the ordinary citizens in your country feel when they are given the opportunity to express their opinion? Are you scared you might find that they have more confidence in their ability to make something of their country, without being told what they should do, or what they should think by their unelected and unaccountable EU overlords?

You can remain a collaborator of the EU that rules by proxy through your national government, whose laws they can strike down, or be dictated by people you have never voted for and cannot remove. That is de facto dictatorship. Do you not understand that is what you are standing for? It seems you have no understanding, nor the desire to be free of it. So you mock.

You do realise that the EU has a clear federal agenda, which will reduce your country to a mere region where the citizens, if they can then be called that, will have no more say in their laws that they would have had in the former Soviet Union? Unless you develop a sense of liberty that you value, then that is your fate. Benjamin Franklin put it quite well when he said "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

So what will you do? Will you demand a real say for your people where you will actually have a role in your future, for better or worse? Or will you be the lickspittle lackey of unelected, unaccountable commissioners who are destroying democracy in favour of "stable government" (read no meaningful elections)?

It's your choice. But don't mock us when you haven't the courage... at least not yet, to fight for your right to have your laws made by the people you elect and can get rid of the same way.