Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread

Started by JasonPratt, September 17, 2018, 05:04:17 PM

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JasonPratt

I just realized that I started around the table with I.I., but I should have started with Tripoli! -- I.I. should be last! Fortunately on this Turn it hasn't mattered yet.

Erax's Progressives roll 3+1, which is a Scenario: no Random Events this Turn! Chances of going into the Middle Era are at least 6/9 = 66.67%... nope, it's also a red-text Faction card, now the 3rd for his hand face down. So we're still in the Early Eara going into the Population and Senate Phases! WOO HOO, NO 3RD PUNIC WAR YET!!

PontMax Flaminius spends 5 (of his 19) on a 2nd knight. Normal vote tally up from 5 to 6.

Erax cannot feasibly try to Persuade any Player's senator I think, and impossible for him (currently) to Persuade Sulpy. So unless he wants to change his Faction Leader, or buy 1 or 2 Popularity by spending 7 or 13 cash to Sponsor Games, this ends Erax's Forum round.

Keeping in mind some possible lag effects (not least which senator I.I. wants to try for a knight!), this ends the Forum Phase!
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IncompetentIdiot

Quote from: JasonPratt on March 20, 2019, 05:16:37 PM
Back to I.I., I don't have further instructions from him yet, but someone should at least try for another knight: either Africanus (3 knights), who has 10 personal cash and could buy an automatic knight with 5 or at least bolster his chancse; or Val or Qunicy (4 knights each), who even without sacrificing cash have the natural minimum 1 in 6 chance.

I.I. could Sponsor Games (with Scipio, but only level 1), or shift his Faction Leader (from Quincy), or try to Persuade a senator (presumably with Scipio). But only Persuading a senator will affect other Players, and Scipio has the best chance which isn't great (at best! -- impossible for most targets).

So I'll provisionally move on around the table. :)

5 for a knight to Scipio.

Tripoli

Quote from: JasonPratt on March 20, 2019, 05:29:45 PM


Hannibal has arrived in Italy.


This adds a second 1 in 6 risk roll to the destruction of each Tax Farming Concession, oh and also another +7 to the War's basic strength, plus 9 and 16 to the automatic D/S results. (8,9,10,11,12,15 and 16 now!)

A

Jason-You are adversely affecting my morale..... ;D
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

JasonPratt

TURN THIRTEEN -- POPULATION PHASE
---------------------------------

Ah, wait, I was wrong about being wrong: Scipio is still Dictator, so he's the HRAO having returned to Rome from War, consequently I.I. did go first around the board for the Forum Phase.

Putting Rome in order...

All senators with an office of PontMax and above get Major Suspicion.

All Tax Farming Concessions are threatened by the 1st Punic War, and again by Hannibal as (co-)Leader! 1 in 6 destroys the Concession.

Rolls for I.I.'s two Tax Farms... #1 rolls 4 and then 6, safe. #5 rolls, ouch a 1 on the first roll: the 2nd Punic War destroys its first heartland area! Valerius loses its Minor Suspicion.

This is the first time a Concession has been destroyed. Concessions are never discarded out of the game (so far as I know...?) Instead Tax Farming 5 goes to the Curia to await random respawning. Once the land has returned to being taxably profitable, the Senate can vote on a Faction to manage it.

Now for Tripoli. Tax Farm #4 rolls 5 and 2, safe. Tax Farm #6 rolls 2 and, argh, 1! Manlius loses his Tax Farming (and also its Minor Suspicion); Hannibal realized the War had skipped messing with some land, and redirected it!

Erax's Plautius is managing the remaining two Tax Farms, and given Erax's terrible luck... 5 and 4 for Tax Farm #3, safe. 6 and 4 for Tax Farm #4, safe, phew.

Other Concessions can be destroyed by various things, but not by Hannibal and/or the 2nd Punic War.

Now it's time to check the Curia for respawns! -- including the newly destroyed Tax Farms! 5 or 6 wins... but the rolls are 1 and 2 for the two destroyed Concessions.

Same chances for the three languishing political families! -- but it's 2, 3, and 4 on the rolls, so they continue to fail to get a scion back into the Senate.

How about Philip the Fifth? Y'all have been unusually lucky about having your Enemy Leaders die off between Wars... and dang, your luck on that still holds! Philip rolls a 5, and dies before coming back to lead more Macedonian Wars. At +6, he was your strongest general so far, until Hannibal arrived: Press F to pay respects. :)

Unrest adjusts: no Unprosecuted Wars, but +1 (from 0 to 1) for the ongoing Illyrian Drought.

The current HRAO is Scipio with a maximum possible 9 Popularity, -1 Unrest, plus 3d6 of +2+3+4, ick a cruddy roll but his Popularity carries him through to an adjusted total of 17! -- subtract 2 Unrest, back down to 0. (You'd think having two significant areas of heartland LAID WASTE BY FOREIGN ARMIES DRAGGING UNEXPECTEDLY OVER THE ALPS would be worth some Unrest, but...!)

With that, the Senate Phase technically starts, but I've been doing this for 3 hours today so I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon to get the snapshots.

Some things to be pre-considering: you won't need to fight a Naval War, and you've got plenty of Fleets (22 out of 25 max) for the 5 Supply devotion. You've got 6 Veterans at Level 1 (Seasoned) defensive training, and another 11 Regular Legions Active. 8 more can be possibly raised before you reach Rome's logistic limit.

There are two new Undeveloped Provinces, Sicilia, and Sardina/Corsica, which must be provided Govenorship. They'll be immune to attack from any Wars currently on the board. If you don't stop the 2nd Punic this Turn, though, they will surely overrun Cisalpine Gaul (and probably kill or capture Valerius of the Aristocrats), capturing its base land strength for its own use!

First Mandatory Business will be for I.I. (through the Dictator Scipio) to Propose two new Consuls. Scipio himself and Field Consul Julius of the Militarists are excluded from consideration. (Roman Consul Claudius got whacked by the Death Bag at the start of the Turn, so that post is vacant; but the new Claudius can be Proposed.)
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JasonPratt

Scipio spends 5 of his 10 remaining cash to buy his 4th knight. Aristo normal vote tally up from 14 to 15.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

Quote from: Tripoli on March 20, 2019, 07:10:09 PM

Jason-You are adversely affecting my morale..... ;D

And indeed he personally zorched one of your Tax Farms!  >:D
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

IncompetentIdiot

What do you all think for this turn? It seems to me that we have the numbers to take on Carthaginians again, but is it worth the risk given the 65% chance of D/S?

Erax

Scipio's influence ended at 40 last turn, so it should be 40+2 after donations. Rome ended last turn at 72 talents, so we should have 72+50+100-20-78=124.

I'm still reading the forum phase stuff.

Erax

Can Scipio be Dictator again? I don't have the rules here.

JasonPratt

Yes, Dictators can be re-appointed by the new Consuls. (Or re-voted in, if the Consuls can't agree.)

However, there's another technical issue I'll have to check on: for a Dictator to be valid, there has to be 3+ Wars Active (only one right now), or one of the Active Wars has to have enough combined basic land and naval strength by itself to trigger the option. I think that combination is 20, like the 1st Punic War (10 and 10). The base strength for this War is 15, and there is no Naval strength!

If Enemy Leaders are allowed to buff the trigger level, then you're good, but if not then there cannot be a Dictator this Turn.


I'll have to double-check the other things this afternoon, but Erax has usually or always been right so far!  :notworthy:
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
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Erax

I got a copy of the rules and (pending JP's interpretation which could be different) it looks like we're out of luck, the war itself has to be over 20.

Let's assume 'no Scipio' for now, we have two options:

A) Let the Punic War wait for a turn and take out the Illyrians for a few spoils and a new veteran legion.

B) Attack Hannibal.

Pros for A: Victory is highly likely, we won't have to raise any legions, even if the 3rd Punic War shows up next turn we still get a turn's grace while it's Imminent, we get spoils and a veteran legion that'll help us next turn.
Pros for B: If we don't attack this turn, we only get one chance next turn before we get doubled wars. There's a lot that could go wrong between now and next turn to make the odds even worse.
Cons for A: If we don't attack the Punic War now we will lose the province and it'll add some strength to the war. And we could lose more tax farms. And we could have bad luck, get a D/S vs. the Illyrians and end up with another active war on our hands.
Cons for B: It's a huge gamble and likely to end in D/S no matter how many legions we send.

I could back either option, I don't see either one as superior. I'd like to hear everyone's opinions.

JasonPratt

Worth noting that we don't really know when the 3rd Punic is supposed to show up. Assuming it's Middle Era (which seems correct), it could be in the final 8 cards of this deck (and even without you knowing how many Early Era Faction cards got drawn to Player hands, you have to think there are only a few if any Early cards remaining now), or it could be anywhere in the Middle deck.

Of course, there are going to be punchy challenges cropping up in the Middle deck, too.

Conservatively you might plan for the risk to be immediate, but odds are just as good it's on the far side of the Middle rather than the start of the Era. (If it's in the Middle at all. It might be Late Era...!)


This might be a time to try a two-wave attack, to 'burn' a Disaster or Standoff result on the first attack (there can only be one of each of those per War per Turn) so that the second attack led by Scipio has a better chance of punching through.


I might also have to think about the spirit vs the letter of the rule, regarding a War's strength to trigger a Dictator. How could a War led by two skilled Enemies that's stomping the farmlands of Italy, NOT allow at least the possibility of a Dictator?? It's obviously more powerful than the 1st Punic War, even without factoring in Hannibal's arrival to help Hamilcar!
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

Okay, some good news! The April 18 Living Rules specify combined land and naval strength of 20 or more.

This is important because the rules do not specifically restrict this to the base strength, or what is printed on the card, which does happen in other cases. (Such as earning Pop and Inf for a Victory, if I recall correctly: a Commander gaining victory over a supported Matching War earns Inf/Pop based on the printed strength, not on multiplied strength, nor on modifiers such as overrun Province strengths, extra provincial militia, thus also not on beating an Enemy Leader and his strength. Doubtless this was restricted for game balancing purposes, so one Player's senator wouldn't warp ahead too far thanks to one Victory.)

On the other hand, the rules do explicitly state that a War's Land (and Naval) Strength can be modified by two methods. One is by the multiplication of support from a subsequent War already being Active, and there has never been any question that this would definitely bump the leading War's strength (of a Matching set of Wars) in such a way as to allow a Dictator.

The other way to modify a War's strengths is by the Enemy Leader's presence, which is treated just like increasing the strength through Matching multiplication (except it counts after the multiplication not before, like icing on top.)

Consequently! -- the 15 Land Strength is being increased by the skill of both Enemy Leaders, easily beyond the 20 limit needed for a Dictator!

<:-)
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

Re: Scipio. Weird, I was sure I had updated his card up to 40 (from 35, after his win over the 1st Punic), but nope I hadn't! After I.I's little Influence ploy, he gains 2 to 42.

And yet, I did properly update the Aristocrat Influence to account for him earning 5 from the Victory. 94 is right. I must have forgotten to save something and then reloaded?  ??? Who knows how my neurons work anymore...

At first I thought I had done something similar with the Republic Treasury, and hadn't counted in the 35 Spoils of the War. But then I realized I was 30 off, not 35. Eventually tracing back through my notes, I decided at one point I was trying to type 72 on my keypad (rather than across the top of my keyboard) and fell short of the 7 hitting the 4 underneath it instead. Then instead of following along on the game board I took a reference back to 42 as the correct amount and proceeded from there.

So yes, confirmed, 124 Talents in the Treasury! Raising the 8 remaining potential Legions would require 80 of those Talents, or whatever less by proportion.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Tripoli

Well that pretty much settles it.  We need Scipio as a dictator, with a militarist as MoH
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln