Middle Provincial Era GROGPUBLIC game thread

Started by JasonPratt, September 17, 2018, 05:04:17 PM

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JasonPratt

#570
I certainly have opinions and recommendations about this, but while I don't think I should say what they are (as the neutral ump) I do agree on a procedural ground with this advice.  O0 (I mean that y'all should consider what to do about the Wars before deciding who should be Consuls.)
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Erax

Assuming the majority bloc continues electing its 5-mil senators, I suggest sending 5 legions against each war. This practically guarantees a stalemate or better vs the pyrrhans, which will weaken them, and gives us good odds vs the latins as well.

JasonPratt

#572
I'd want to double check the odds, but I recall that the Pyrrhic War has by far the most dangerous chances of a D/S result in the pre-Early Eras. I can't recall (being at the office) if it's 25ish percent with Pyrrhus, or if it would have been even worse with him, but it's a serious number.

Someone who bookmarked the percentage spread (I did but not at the office, duh ;) ), might want to look into that. A total of 7 gets a Disaster, and 16 gets a Standoff, on a 3d6.

The point is that if y'all send enough Legion power to curbstomp that war, you're consequently risking a decent chance of a straight percentage loss of those same Legions instead. Which is going to be true in any case, but the scenario designer subtly designed that war to feel safer picking at it with acceptable loss risks until it goes away.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Erax

D/S results are determined before modifications, ie they're the dice roll before we add legions, subtract the war strength, and so on.

Pyrrhan War
D on a 07: 6.9%.  S on a 16: 2.8%.
Stalemate+ with 5 Legions + 5 Mil requires a 5+ on 3d6, which gives us a 98% chance.
Victory requires an 11+, which is a 50% chance, or 47% discounting a Standoff on a 16.

2nd Latin War
D on a 04: 1.4%.  S on an 18: 0.5%.
Victory with 5 Legions + 5 Mil requires an 8+, which is an 84% chance, or 83% discounting a Standoff on an 18.

Tripoli

I recommend the curb stomping approach, with the Pyrrhan war being the first target, and holding the line on the 2nd Latin war.  Any losses suffered would still leave enough forces to finish off the Latin War next turn, minimizing the need to raise a significant number of legions.  Because of the +3 unrest, we need to end one of the wars this turn.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

JasonPratt

Hrm. Note to myself to check again with the scenario designer's BotR rules this afternoon, because I must be badly mis-remembering his chart for D/S combined percentage results (with and without Enemy leaders) for his prequel wars. Or he badly miscalculated.

Well, this is why I asked for someone to check the actual percentage spreads. A combined 10ish percent risk of an automatic D/S result is much better than a combined 25ish percent!


On the Unrest factor, keep in mind that the minimum unrest during Pop Phase State of Republic speeches, is going to be 2 in any case, until and unless the Senate votes to start allowing the Plebian Council and (more importantly for gameplay purposes) its Tribunes to exist.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

Any consideration of Erax's very handy stat results, and the question of curbstomping one war now (it isn't quite possible to curbstomp both wars right now although a victory in both wars at once is far from impossible) should also keep in mind opportunity gains for knocking out one or the other war.

In other words, if y'all vote to go after one war now instead of the other, with enough Legion power to crushingly win with minimal chance of losses, what are you gaining either way now compared with what you'll be gaining next turn either way?
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Ethel the Frog

I am thinking to nominate Cornelius and Flaminius.  In connection with that nomination I would want the following commitments: (1) that we commit to two wars next turn (2) that one of my guys be censor.  In addition, I would agree not to prosecute the Progressives or the Aristocrats this turn as censor.  I would send you guys private messages, but the interface on Grogheads is too much of a pain in the neck.

So, I am not making these nominations yet, but asking you guys if you agree.  Also, my gmail is dmakman@gmail.com

So, if anyone wants to talk privately, It would be ideal to open up a gmail hangout so that we have a channel. 

Erax


Tripoli

The PM system seems to be TANGO UNIFORM.  For communications purposes, can we shift to email?  My email address is SteveLohr@aol.com.  If others could post their email addresses, that would be great.
"Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?" -Abraham Lincoln

JasonPratt

While I'm catching up on developments since my last check-in this afternoon, I checked the scenario designer's odds table for his pre-Early Wars.

I was remembering the Pyrrhic War with Pyrrhus, who boosts the D/S chances to 25.9% combined. Without Pyr, as in our game's run of the dice, the D/S results drop to the 9.7% Erax provided stats for.

The other dangerous D/S chances was for the Veientine War at 23.2%, if Camillus wasn't fighting it -- though in our game, he did.

What I was inadvertently mis-remembering was the chance for the Veientine War as though it was the chance for the Pyrrhic War without Pyr.
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

I have also confirmed, checking the rules again so far as I can find, that a senator can be elected Censor any number of times in a row, so long as he's otherwise still valid -- and so long as other senators can be persuaded to keep electing him!  ^-^

Current Censors can be elected to higher offices (Consul, or Dictator if that emergency post becomes unlocked), but of course then someone else must be elected Censor at the first opportunity.

For practical purposes this Turn, this means Appius Claudius of the Plutocrats can be elected Censor again, or can be elected to one of the Consular posts (since he wasn't a Consul last Turn).
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

JasonPratt

As an administrative note, the forum will be migrating to a new platform over the next 24 hours, so we should consider not posting anything else officially about the game, by p-mail or in the game thread until Saturday night.

Some of you may also get two messages about this by p-mail, since I just realized I didn't include some players in my blast list.  :-[
ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!

Erax

Does a Censor keep his office until the next Censor election, or just until prosecutions are done?

JasonPratt

#584
Quote from: Erax on November 10, 2018, 11:24:28 AM
Does a Censor keep his office until the next Censor election, or just until prosecutions are done?

Yes, Censors are still Censor after the prosecutions. This becomes important if both Consuls (and possibly the Dictator, not to mention Master of Horse) are sent to lead armies to War. The Censor, being necessarily a Prior Consul (one of the qualifications of validity), gets to be HRAO.

Also, assassinations can still happen after the prosecution segment (and before the Censor's re/election on the following Turn), and investigating suspicion of the assassin's Faction Leader (if the assassin is caught) is still a Censor's job.

The Censor temporarily gets to be Presiding Magistrate during a normal or (for assassination) special prosecution segment, and hands that back to the HRAO afterward (unless somehow the Censor is in fact the HRAO, which could happen for an incoming Senate Phase with a caught assassin before the Censor as HRAO has succeeded in Proposing the two new Consuls.) But the Censor remains the Censor, whether PM or not, until the next election.

Since you mention it, though, who else doesn't keep their post after a prosecution is finished, are the Prosecutor and the Advocate. The Censor (in the modern expanded rules) must appoint a (willing) senator as Prosecutor, the idea being that the Censor acts as judge with the other senator as what came to be known later as the "judge advocate". The accused senator can then choose a (defense) Advocate to help him, or he can choose to be his own Advocate. This all affects various stat combinations that go into rolling for the outcomes. There will always be a Senate Vote for or against conviction, however, which also gets added to generate the final outcome, so the players get to actively contribute to the trial.


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ICEBREAKER THESIS CHRONOLOGY! -- Victor Suvorov's Stalin Grand Strategy theory, in lots and lots of chronological order...
Dawn of Armageddon -- narrative AAR for Dawn of War: Soulstorm: Ultimate Apocalypse
Survive Harder! -- Two season narrative AAR, an Amazon Blood Bowl career.
PanzOrc Corpz Generals -- Fantasy Wars narrative AAR, half a combined campaign.
Khazâd du-bekâr! -- narrative dwarf AAR for LotR BfME2 RotWK campaign.
RobO Q Campaign Generator -- archived classic CMBB/CMAK tool!