Lots of buzz on Trump preparing a strike on Norks with China support

[mirth]

Is there any scenario where the Chinese would actually ally with the US against North Korea, or is the best the US can hope for, if it comes down to a strike, is for China to look the other way?

Doesn't sound like the Chinese military is in any mood to re-fight the original Korean War.

Personally, I think China cutting off trade with the Norks is the best we could hope for, but then again, that's not insubstantial since China is their largest/only benefactor.

They mentioned restricting oil. That's pretty huge.

[Gusington]

We should deploy Pratt to N. Korea to start a conversation with them!

[mirth]

To be clear, the buzz was more along the lines of Trump preparing for a strike, not actually ordering one yet, but definitely considering it. I should edit the thread title accordingly.

Edit complete.

Well, you did manage to get a good conversation going 

And it hasn't derailed yet. Impressive.

[mirth]

We should deploy Pratt to N. Korea to start a conversation with them!

We're sending Gus Team Seal

[Gusington]

^The situation is not quite that perilous/desperate yet.

[Sir Slash]

Pratt can't go. He has to finish his AAR against Barth in DC 1. We need that Fix more than the world needs peace. Sorry world.

[Steelgrave]

Well, you did manage to get a good conversation going 

And it hasn't derailed yet. Impressive.

Oh, you've jinxed us now, brother!

[OJsDad]

Interesting

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/world/asia/trump-china-north-korea-xi-jinping.html

Nice find. I suspect three things are happening. (1) The Chinese may see N. Korea as being more trouble on the world stage than it is currently worth, (2) Trump may be the first President since Ronald Reagan who our adversaries view as a "wild card" militarily, and (3) China is going to want something substantial in return for it's cooperation, such as some give on the South China Sea perhaps. One thing is for certain: if China suddenly turns on the Norks, it's not because they suddenly realized what bad guys they are.

Good points.  I'll one more though Steelie. 

Trump has been threating China's trade with the US since he got into the race for president.  China cannot take the chance that they could lose their $300+B trade deficit if they don't help cleanup the mess in NK. 

[Sir Slash]

I think tonight when Fat Boy goes to sleep, everybody ought to slip-out the country without telling him. Let him make his own Bacon & Eggs in the morning for once. Or tell him if he doesn't straighten-up, Hillary will be his new ambassador from the U.S. to deal with. And then 10 years from now, every kid in N. Korea will look like Bill including his own. That would sure-as hell work for me-- in so many ways.

How's that for sabotaging the thread? I CAN do better.

[bayonetbrant]

another viewpoint

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159495094661/the-north-korea-reframe

[JasonPratt]

Evidently the Lingerie Category in Area 51 has become publicly visible this week, so perhaps the threat of thread derailments has lessened.

One of the buzz videos I saw this morning indicated the Chinese had told the Norks that if Kim tries to go north to take some nearby oil, once China cuts him off, it'll be the last mistake he and his country ever make. I'm not linking to it because I'm dubious about the sourcing, but it's certainly plausible as a pre-emptive threat: play nice or we stop your oil; try to take our oil after we cut you off, and you will learn the meaning of not playing nice. "It's time to grow up, boy," is definitely the message the Chinese are sending.

Trump has seen significant approval for his airstrike on Syria (including from the Democrats; heck Hillary called for the airstrike first a few days ago!), and may think rattling that saber as a threat to North Korea for diplomacy purposes will score him more points on his cratering approval ratings. He marketed himself as a guy who knows how to negotiate winning deals, foreign and domestic, and he has failed spectacularly on public attempts in his first hundred days. I don't have any problem believing that with the birthday celebration of NK's founder coming up along with a likely propaganda test, he intends to scotch that test with force when/if it's tried or else make the Norks back down behind their bluster: after all, they threatened to nuke the US a few days ago the moment the first bullet flew in World War 3, which was their way of looking like a political player on the world stage. A more sober political player would just say, "yeah, that's typical Norkiness," and let it slide. Trump may think he sees an opportunity to teach the Norks not to aggro Godzilla and so counter-bluff down their rhetoric with a carrier group poised to laser-guide some munitions into his windows.

The problem comes if Kim really is as deluded as he seems to be, and decides the only way to get respect is to call the US' bluff. Then Trump either bites his own ego down, or he decaps North Korea on a CMANO first strike operation (expect to see that mission pack updated soon... ;) )

If he's seriously planning option two -- and he was talking with Xi in Florida when he greenlit the airfield strike, so Xi knows he can pull the trigger -- it would be to his advantage to let the Chinese know they have an opportunity to score some world political points by helping defuse the situation with a 'soft' technique. They wouldn't even need to ask for a quid pro: the political capital alone of being seen to defuse both Kim and Trump's dangerous pissing match would be reason enough to try. Everyone wins except North Korea: and if Trump decaps them, then China might work with the South to stabilize the region, being seen as cooperative saviors for the abused North people. The US sees an exit light at the end of the tunnel from the watch on the Parallel, and gets several kinds of credit; Trump can point to solving the Korean Problem on his sheet for his legacy.

This all presumes the North doesn't mobilize under one or more juntas to resist Chinese/South overthrow. Then it's just a morass that the Americans started and left others to clean up. Again. This time with unsecured nukes floating in the wind, who knows where.

[Gusington]

Can you imagine the trillions of dollars that could potentially be made by reuniting Korea if events go the right way? I think Trump can imagine it. And maybe the Chinese now too.

[mirth]

Can you imagine the trillions of dollars that could potentially be made by reuniting Korea if events go the right way? I think Trump can imagine it. And maybe the Chinese now too.

Trump Plaza Pyongyang

[Gusington]

Trump's Great Leader Buffet and Putt Putt

[mirth]

He would fit nicely in the Democratic People's Republic.