Author Topic: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical  (Read 239 times)

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Offline MengJiao

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June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« on: September 04, 2017, 05:44:59 PM »

  The idea here is to push ahead into the Operation Dauntless timeframe in the Grant Tactical System.  Here the 50th and 49th divisions attack Panzer Lehr and the 12th SS around Cristot and Tilly-sur-Seulles, which they did historically around this time.  This is two days after the end of the last turn of the Grand Tactical D-day game and 15 hours before the first scenario in Operation Dauntless ( a hypothetical attack on Cristot).  It is possible as happened historically and in the first two times I tried this -- that 30 Corps will not get very far on this front.  There are 7 objectives and an additional brigade for each side that can be committed at the cost of one objective in terms of victory (which would be if you took/held 4 objectives in the three days before the storm of the 19th stops the allies -- but if you committ a brigade you have to win by 5 objectives unless the other side also commits then its back to 4).


Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2017, 07:55:07 PM »

  The idea here is to push ahead into the Operation Dauntless timeframe in the Grant Tactical System.  Here the 50th and 49th divisions attack Panzer Lehr and the 12th SS around Cristot and Tilly-sur-Seulles, which they did historically around this time.  This is two days after the end of the last turn of the Grand Tactical D-day game and 15 hours before the first scenario in Operation Dauntless ( a hypothetical attack on Cristot).  It is possible as happened historically and in the first two times I tried this -- that 30 Corps will not get very far on this front.  There are 7 objectives and an additional brigade for each side that can be committed at the cost of one objective in terms of victory (which would be if you took/held 4 objectives in the three days before the storm of the 19th stops the allies -- but if you committ a brigade you have to win by 5 objectives unless the other side also commits then its back to 4).

  Yes, and the 3rd Canadian is playing as the 49th Division.  Anyway, a few hours into the hours of darkness (all one big 10-hour turn) things have gotten rough.  The Germans called in their reinforcements (one KG with Tigers and such) and 2nd Army has sent in all of the 49th.  The D-day game rules make it much easier to move and fight at night.  Terrain costs for example are not doubled (which makes sense since you have 5 times more time to move).  Certain units (the 12th SS and the British Paratroops) get big assault bonuses at night.  On this part of the front, that's a little odd since only the 49th seems to have made any night attacks and they were all successful.  Somewhat ahistorically, the motorized troops of the 7th armored just made a resoundingly successful raid (and even got out alive if less coherent and very suppressed) and the 49th captured some high ground with a battalion attack backed up with an odd mix of armor.  Time to call in the Tigers.  And the Germans are still winning (7 objectives and the extra Bdes cancel).

Offline bayonetbrant

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2017, 08:26:09 PM »
the changing victory conditions based on forces committed are an interesting idea
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Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2017, 04:19:14 AM »
the changing victory conditions based on forces committed are an interesting idea

  Partly the result of not finding an easy way to fit 3 brigades into the frontage that the 49th had historically, plus not wanting to cram the German front lines with three KGs -- which is enough right away to make this part of the front as static and attritional as it was historically (though that seems likely to happen anyway at this point).

Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2017, 07:43:57 PM »


  Yes, and the 3rd Canadian is playing as the 49th Division.  Anyway, a few hours into the hours of darkness (all one big 10-hour turn) things have gotten rough.  The Germans called in their reinforcements (one KG with Tigers and such) and 2nd Army has sent in all of the 49th.  The D-day game rules make it much easier to move and fight at night.  Terrain costs for example are not doubled (which makes sense since you have 5 times more time to move).  Certain units (the 12th SS and the British Paratroops) get big assault bonuses at night.  On this part of the front, that's a little odd since only the 49th seems to have made any night attacks and they were all successful.  Somewhat ahistorically, the motorized troops of the 7th armored just made a resoundingly successful raid (and even got out alive if less coherent and very suppressed) and the 49th captured some high ground with a battalion attack backed up with an odd mix of armor.  Time to call in the Tigers.  And the Germans are still winning (7 objectives and the extra Bdes cancel).

   A savage morning follows a bloody night.  On the 49th's front, one battalion is 75% wiped out and the SS is holding on.  On the 50th's front, loads of lucky rolls and chit pulls have stretched command control to close to breaking, but the 8th Armored has driven into the bocage following up on some infantry raids, lucky artillery fire and two German counter-attacks that did not go well.  But the Germans haven't used much of their command points and the KG with some Tigers is coming up:


Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2017, 06:18:00 PM »

   A savage morning follows a bloody night.  On the 49th's front, one battalion is 75% wiped out and the SS is holding on.  On the 50th's front, loads of lucky rolls and chit pulls have stretched command control to close to breaking, but the 8th Armored has driven into the bocage following up on some infantry raids, lucky artillery fire and two German counter-attacks that did not go well.  But the Germans haven't used much of their command points and the KG with some Tigers is coming up:

  10am: the 49th takes Cristot (about 3 hours ahead of the historical event) while the German defense solidifies.  7th Army (German) has brought in another KG so the score is 7objectives -1 KG (2 GErman, 1 UK) = 6.  Only the motorized elements of the 346 Div KG have arrived.  The bicycle Grenadiers and horse-drawn guns are still on the road.  Still, I think 7th army has a reasonable hope of holding the line (maybe losing Tilly and Chateau de Boiselonde and as happened historically) giving them a 4 to 2 win.  But who knows?

Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2017, 08:02:13 PM »

  10am: the 49th takes Cristot (about 3 hours ahead of the historical event) while the German defense solidifies.  7th Army (German) has brought in another KG so the score is 7objectives -1 KG (2 GErman, 1 UK) = 6.  Only the motorized elements of the 346 Div KG have arrived.  The bicycle Grenadiers and horse-drawn guns are still on the road.  Still, I think 7th army has a reasonable hope of holding the line (maybe losing Tilly and Chateau de Boiselonde and as happened historically) giving them a 4 to 2 win.  But who knows?

  2pm (some ways into the 1pm 2-hour move in other words):  By now it is clear why the historical event was not quite like this.  Historically, the 2nd Army's attacks here at this time were limited and very heavily supported.  Here we are about 16 hours into a medium-sized offensive and the loses are huge. Second Army has lost 12 infantry steps -- which would be about 600 infantrymen killed wounded or captured -- a loss rate greater than that of a major offensive like Epsom and mostly in only 3 brigades.  German loses are slightly less and tank loses are about equal -- which matches with rates for Villers Bocage and Epsom.  Second Army could keep going, but would have to bring in at least one fresh infantry brigade a day -- which in mid-June second Army did no have.  The other solution -- bring in more tanks and try to bust the whole front open -- is not available either since at this stage Second Army was still very wary of being caught low on tanks when fresh German armor arrived.  More of a psychological issue than a real problem, but no one was quite sure of that until after Epsom.
On the other hand there is a very promising dynamic emerging for a continued offensive by Second Army -- its kind of an Agincourt-like phenomena -- where it seems the English archers finished off the surviving French dismounted knights one-by-one with their stake-driving hammers -- in short -- be ye German or French it doesn't matter if your armor is better when the battle is one of concentrating and overwhelming the armor bit-by-bit incrementally with whatever tools come to hand.  If the British stop or slow the offensive, the German armor will recover from its many tiny ills (though all four Tigers went down in one horrific moment -- very different from the gradual and idiosyncratic demises of the 4 Tigers lost in opposing Operation Dauntless ) and once more shoot the attackers to bits until things start to go wrong again.  So who knows?

Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2017, 05:34:30 PM »
  So who knows?

  The front expands!  The game lurches on.   2nd Army has taken Tilly and is still one brigade/GK commitment head -- but a new objective has been added: Le Lion Verte so points stand at 2nd Army 2, 7th Army 7.  Both sides have an extra third-rate KG/Bde covering the west.  It's 4pm on the 16th so the 2nd Army has only about 48 hours of attack time left before the massive storm obliterates most of their logistic support.
   I should note that by this point -- kind of non-historically -- KG Brassert, which was brought in to defend Tilly -- has been pretty much wiped out.  12th SS is switching West to hold that part of the line while the KG of infantry Division 346 takes over on the eastern edge of the battle area.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2017, 07:04:04 PM by MengJiao »

Offline MengJiao

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Re: June 15, 1944 -- Hypothetical
« Reply #8 on: Today at 05:22:02 PM »

   I should note that by this point -- kind of non-historically -- KG Brassert, which was brought in to defend Tilly -- has been pretty much wiped out.  12th SS is switching West to hold that part of the line while the KG of infantry Division 346 takes over on the eastern edge of the battle area.

    5pm June 16 almost 24 hours into the battle.  A lot happened in the last hour and symptomatically it is the Divisional chit of the 12 SS that goes first in this turn -- Yes!  because they didn't move at all in the 3pm-5pm time frame and the chit rule is last chit doesn't go til next turn.  This at least prevents any chit from getting two moves in a row.  On the other hand the 12th SS was supposed to take over the line at Juvigny as PzLehr shifted west.  That didn't happen and a massive British assault obliterated most of what was left of KG Brasssert and took Juvigny.  Boiselonde Wood fell too (and two objectives moved out to bridges out west) leaving the score at 2nd Army 4, 7th Army 7.   British loses were heavy and will no doubt get much worse when the SS counter-attacks at Juvigny.  The sacrificial placement of some light tanks may not help much.  2nd army ran out of command points just as it took its two objectives leaving them open to a massive counterattack.  2nd Army has two more armored Bdes that it could bring in and with most of the  brigades on the field losing strength fast -- that will probably happen.